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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options
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Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

机译：用于生物能源和气候稳定的土地利用过渡：驱动因素，影响以及与其他基于土地利用的缓解方案的相互作用的模型比较

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In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10-18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24-36 % of total cropland by 2100.
机译：在本文中，我们评估和比较了三种综合评估模型（GCAM，IMAGE和ReMIND / MAgPIE）的结果，这些模型涉及生物能源生产对全球土地系统的驱动力和影响。所考虑的模型框架采用了链接的能源，经济，气候和土地利用模块。通过这些联系，已经考虑到了基于经济成本和来自生物能源生产的温室气体排放，生物能源与其他能源技术直接竞争以减少温室气体（GHG）。我们的结果表明，专用的生物能源作物和生物质残渣构成了对能源系统的潜在重要且具有成本效益的输入。但是，与此同时，在部署率，原料组成，土地利用和温室气体影响方面，结果差异很大。本文件通过具体研究与土地利用成分有关的模型差异来增加早期工作，这些差异可能导致结果的明显差异，包括土地覆盖分配，土地利用限制，能源作物产量和非生物能源土地减缓选项建模。在没有缓解气候变化的情况下，到2100年，在不同模式下，生物能源耕地将占总耕地的10-18％，并以富含碳的生态系统为代价来促进耕地扩张。因此，到2100年，由于生物能源使用而导致的土地利用变化和农业集约化带来的相关排放量累计在14和113 Gt CO2当量之间。根据气候政策，到2100年，生物能源耕地将占总耕地的24-36％ 。

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