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Detection of urbanization signals in extreme winter minimum temperature changes over Northern China

机译:在中国北方极端冬季最低温度变化中检测城市化信号

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摘要

Although previous studies show that urbanization contributes to less than 10 % of the long-term regional total warming trend of mean surface air temperature in northeast China (Li et al. 2010), the urban heat island (UHI) impact on extreme temperatures could be more significant. This paper examines the urbanization impact on extreme winter minimum temperatures from 33 stations in North China during the period of 1957-2010. We use the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to analyze the distribution of extreme minimum temperatures and the long-term variations of the three distributional characteristics parameters. Results suggest that among the three distribution parameters, the position parameter is the most representative in terms of the long-term extreme minimum temperature change. A new classification method based on the intercommunity (factors analysis method) of the temperature change is developed to detect the urbanization effect on winter extreme minimum temperatures in different cities. During the period of rapid urbanization (after 1980), the magnitude of variations of the three distribution parameters for the urban station group is larger than that for the reference station group, indicating a higher chance of occurrence of warmer weather and a larger fluctuation of temperatures. Among different types of cities, the three parameters of extreme minimum temperature distribution of the urban station group are, without exception, higher than those of the reference station group. The urbanization of different types of cities all show a warming effect, with small-size cities have the most evident effects on extreme minimum temperatures.
机译:尽管以前的研究表明,城市化仅占中国东北地区平均地表温度长期区域总变暖趋势的不到10%(Li等,2010),但城市热岛(UHI)对极端温度的影响可能是更重要。本文研究了1957-2010年间华北地区33个站点的城市化对极端冬季最低温度的影响。我们使用广义极值(GEV)分布来分析极端最低温度的分布以及三个分布特征参数的长期变化。结果表明,就长期极端最小温度变化而言,在三个分布参数中,位置参数最具代表性。提出了一种基于社区间温度变化的新分类方法(因子分析方法),以检测城市化对不同城市冬季极端最低温度的影响。在快速城市化时期(1980年以后),城市站点组三个分布参数的变化幅度大于参考站点组,表明发生温暖天气的可能性更高,温度波动更大。在不同类型的城市中,城市站组的极端最低温度分布的三个参数无一例外地高于参考站组的三个。不同类型城市的城市化都表现出变暖的作用,而小型城市对极端最低温度的影响最明显。

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