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Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

机译:估算气候变化对美国牧场净初级生产力的影响

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The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year(-1) (7 kg C ha(-1) year(-1)) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO2 manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected
机译:使用从2001年到2100年施加于生物地球化学循环模型Biome-BGC的A1B,A2和B2全球变化情景中的估计气候制度,评估了气候变化对美国牧场的净初级生产力(NPP)的潜在影响。蒸汽压赤字,日长,太阳辐射,CO2富集和氮沉降被评估为NPP的驱动因素。在所有这三种情况下,牧场的NPP增长了0.26%(-1)年(-1)(7 kg C ha(-1)年(-1)),但是这种增长直到2030年之后才显现出来,并且揭示了NPP的显着区域差异。到2100年,沙漠西南和西南评估地区的NPP下降了约7%,而北部和南部的大平原,内陆西部和东部的草原地区都经历了25%以上的增长。以暖季(C4光合途径)为主导的草原对温度的响应最大,而冷季(C3光合途径)为主导的地区对CO2富集的响应最为强烈。建模的NPP响应与CO2操纵实验的实验结果以及中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的NPP估计值相比具有优势。总体而言,这些结果表明,美国牧场的NPP可能出现显着且不对称的变化

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