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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment. Part 5. Irrigated agriculture and national grain crop production.
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Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment. Part 5. Irrigated agriculture and national grain crop production.

机译：气候变化对美国本土的影响：综合评估。第5部分。灌溉农业和国家粮食生产。

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During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate, affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent, under these same scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions, precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation, less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2] and appears likely to increase under climate change.
机译：在本世纪中，全球变暖将导致全球天气和气候变化，从而影响我们环境的许多方面。农业是美国经济最有可能直接受到气候变化影响的部门。我们已经研究了旱地农业（第3部分）和作物生产所需的水资源（第4部分）中潜在的变化，以应对一系列气候变化情景。在本文中，我们评估了在相同情况下的供水量在何种程度上足以满足美国主要粮食作物的灌溉需求。此外，我们评估了供水变化对国家粮食生产的总体影响。我们将第1部分所述的12种气候变化情景应用于第2部分描述的美国本土的水资源和作物生长模拟模型。利用第3部分和第4部分中的数据，我们可以通过在需要且水供应允许的情况下进行灌溉，来计算当前生产谷物的那些地区的国民生产总值。在本研究采用的所有气候变化情景下，用于农作物的灌溉水总量均下降。在某些情况下，特别是在某些地区，降水减少得如此之多，以至于供水太有限;在其他地区，降水变得如此丰富，以至于灌溉几乎没有价值。当需要灌溉时，全国谷物作物的产量更高。在灌溉条件下，大多数气候变化情景下的玉米和大豆产量要少于基准气候条件下的产量。灌溉条件下的冬小麦产量对大气中二氧化碳浓度[CO2]的升高有明显的响应，并且在气候变化下可能会增加。

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