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Semiquantitative Assessment of Regional Climate Vulnerability: TheNorth-Rhine Westphalia Study

机译：区域气候脆弱性的半定量评估：北莱茵-威斯特法伦州研究

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摘要

Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide during the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and complexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic assets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize - and visualize - the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquantitative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment.
机译：在21世纪，气候变化将导致全球环境状况发生巨大变化。特别是，当今流行的大多数极端事件和自然灾害制度将得到改变，从而使无数自然和社会经济系统面临难以应对的新风险。使用统计物理学中强大的模式识别方法，分析了人为干扰气候系统的这一脆弱性的关键组成部分。该分析在空间规模和复杂度方面分别具有中间特征，因此可以对任何感兴趣的区域进行快速的区域评估。该方法基于对该地区对极端天气（和气候）事件极为敏感的所有这些生态和社会经济资产的综合清单。然后，采用先进的聚类分析技术从清单中得出一组专题图，这些专题图简要总结并可视化了所讨论区域的差异漏洞特征。这些信息可以使决策者和公众做好应对气候变化危害的准备，并有助于预防性的气候变化风险管理。这里描述和应用的半定量方法可以很容易地扩展到气候变化评估的其他方面。

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