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Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26[ring]N in the Atlantic

机译：在大西洋以26 [ring] N检测子午翻转翻转环中的潜在变化

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摘要

We analyze the ability of an oceanic monitoring array to detect potential changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The observing array is 'deployed' into a numerical model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), and simulates the measurements of density and wind stress at 26pN in the Atlantic. The simulated array mimics the continuous monitoring system deployed in the framework of the UK Rapid Climate Change program. We analyze a set of three realizations of a climate change scenario (IPCC A1B), in which - within the considered time-horizon of 200 years - the MOC weakens, but does not collapse. For the detection analysis, we assume that the natural variability of the MOC is known from an independent source, the control run. Our detection approach accounts for the effects of observation errors, infrequent observations, autocorrelated internal variability, and uncertainty in the initial conditions. Continuous observation with the simulated array for approximately 60 years yields a statistically significant (p < 0.05) detection with 95 percent reliability assuming a random observation error of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 10e mpd sp#). Observing continuously with an observation error of 3 Sv yields a detection time of about 90 years (with 95 percent reliability). Repeated hydrographic transects every 5 years/ 20 years result in a detection time of about 90 years/120 years, with 95 percent reliability and an assumed observation error of 3 Sv. An observation error of 3 Sv (one standard deviation) is a plausible estimate of the observation error associated with the RAPID UK 26pN array.
机译：我们分析了海洋监测阵列检测北大西洋子午翻转环流（MOC）中潜在变化的能力。观测阵列被“部署”到一个数值模型（ECHAM5 / MPI-OM）中，并模拟大西洋上26pN时密度和风应力的测量。模拟阵列模拟了在英国快速气候变化计划框架内部署的连续监测系统。我们分析了气候变化情景（IPCC A1B）的三个实现，其中-在考虑的200年时间范围内，MOC减弱但不会崩溃。对于检测分析，我们假设可从独立来源（控制运行）获知MOC的自然变异性。我们的检测方法考虑了观察误差，不频繁观察，自相关内部可变性和初始条件中的不确定性的影响。假设随机观察误差为1 Sv（1 Sv = 10e mpd sp＃），则用模拟阵列连续观察约60年将产生具有统计意义的（p <0.05）具有95％可靠性的检测结果。连续观察到3 Sv的观察误差会产生大约90年的检测时间（95％的可靠性）。每5年/ 20年重复进行一次水文横断面，检测时间约为90年/ 120年，可靠性为95％，假定的观测误差为3 Sv。 3 Sv的观察误差（一个标准偏差）是与RAPID UK 26pN阵列相关的观察误差的合理估计。

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