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Climate change, weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: Southwestern Quebec

机译:较高纬度地区的气候变化,天气多变性和玉米产量:魁北克西南部

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Climate change has led to increased temperatures, and simulation models suggest that this should affect crop production in important agricultural regions of the world. Nations at higher latitudes, such as Canada, will be most affected. We studied the relationship between climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and corn yield trends over a period of 33 years for the Monteregie region of south-western Quebec using historical yield and climate records and statistical models. Growing season mean temperature has increased in Monterregie, mainly due to increased September temperature. Precipitation did not show any clear trend over the 33 year period. Yield increased about 118 kg hap# yearp# from 1973 to 2005 (under normal weather conditions) due mainly to changes in technology (genetics and management). Two climate variables were strongly associated with corn yield variability: July temperature and May precipitation. These two variables explain more than a half of yield variability associated with climate. In conclusion, July temperatures below normal and May precipitation above normal have negative effects on corn yield, and the growing seasons have warmed, largely due to increases in the September temperature.
机译:气候变化导致温度升高,模拟模型表明,这将影响世界重要农业地区的农作物产量。纬度较高的国家(例如加拿大)将受到最大影响。我们使用历史产量,气候记录和统计模型研究了魁北克西南部蒙特雷基地区33年间气候变异性(温度和降水)与玉米产量趋势之间的关系。蒙特雷基的生长季平均气温有所上升,主要原因是9月气温上升。在这33年中,降水没有显示任何明显的趋势。从1973年到2005年(在正常天气条件下),单产每年增加118公斤,这主要是由于技术(遗传和管理)的变化所致。两个气候变量与玉米产量变异密切相关:7月温度和5月降水。这两个变量解释了超过一半的与气候相关的产量变异性。总之,7月温度低于正常水平和5月降水高于正常水平对玉米单产有负面影响,生长季节回暖,主要是由于9月温度升高。

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