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Assessing stakeholder impacts and adaptation to low water-levels: the Trent-Severn waterway

机译：评估利益相关者的影响并适应低水位：特伦特-塞文水道

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The Trent-Severn Waterway in central Ontario, Canada, is a large inland water system. It is managed for a broad range of stakeholders with different needs and expectations, creating a complex management context. Although variations in water levels occur, extreme low water-level events may increase in the future due to climate change, challenging management practices, in addition to requiring adaptation to reduce impacts. A modified policy Delphi was used to generate and evaluate ideas related to historical and future water-level impacts and adaptations. The paper presents the perspectives of three groups-cottagers and homeowners (CH), government (G), and industry and business (IB)-on their experiences with historic low water-levels, as well as their perspectives on future impacts and adaptations using two water-level scenarios: a moderate decrease of 25 cm and a more severe 50 cm decline. Shared impacts and adaptations (individual and collective) were identified along with those that were unique to a group. The likelihood of and consensus on potential impacts and most adaptations increased with the severity of water-level reduction. All groups indicated a higher likelihood of using collective rather than individual adaptations with the severe scenario, and in some cases, their contacts for assistance with adaptation broadened. While the modified policy Delphi requires significant effort by the analyst and respondents, it provides a useful framework for generating and analyzing perceptions and preferences of diverse stakeholders.
机译：加拿大安大略省中部的特伦特-塞文水道是一个大型内陆水系。它针对具有不同需求和期望的广泛利益相关者进行管理，从而创建了复杂的管理环境。尽管水位会发生变化，但是由于气候变化，极富挑战性的管理实践，除了要求采取适应措施以减少影响之外，未来极低水位事件可能还会增加。修改后的德尔菲政策被用来产生和评估与历史和未来水位影响和适应有关的想法。本文介绍了三组人-村民和房主（CH），政府（G）以及工商业（IB）-关于他们在历史低水位方面的经验以及他们对未来影响和适应的看法两种水位情景：适度下降25厘米，更严重下降50厘米。确定了共同的影响和适应（个人和集体）以及一个群体独有的影响和适应。随着水位降低的严重程度，潜在影响和大多数适应措施的可能性和共识增加了。所有群体都表明，在严峻的情况下使用集体适应而不是个体适应的可能性更高，并且在某些情况下，他们寻求适应援助的联系扩大了。尽管修改后的德尔福政策需要分析师和受访者付出巨大的努力，但它为生成和分析不同利益相关者的看法和偏好提供了一个有用的框架。

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