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The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes

机译：极端干旱对气候变化信念，风险感知和适应态度的影响

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摘要

The role of extreme weather events in shaping people's climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors' climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US.
机译：学术文献，大众媒体和政策界已广泛研究和讨论了极端天气事件在塑造人们的气候变化信念和适应态度中的作用。在本手稿中，我们使用极端事件前后的数据调查了2012年美国中西部干旱对农业顾问的气候变化观念，适应态度和风险感知的影响，为辩论做出了贡献。我们发现，干旱不会导致气候变化观念和适应态度的明显改变。但是，风险观念的确发生了变化，顾问变得更加关注干旱和虫害带来的风险，而不再关注与洪水和积水有关的风险。尽管增加的风险感知与更有利的适应态度显着相关，但影响还不足以导致整体转向对适应的更有利态度。结果表明，极端气候事件可能不会（至少不会立即）导致气候观念发生重大变化。此外，研究结果还警告说，至少在美国大型商业农业等缓冲系统的背景下，依赖于不断增长的风险认知来采取行动来应对气候变化的政策设计可能高估了极端事件对风险感的影响。

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