...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC
【24h】

Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC

机译：同意不同意：IPCC评估气候变化，影响和对策中的不确定性管理

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel's scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the observed differences in the handling of uncertainties by the three IPCC Working Groups can be clarified. To address this question, the paper reviews a few key issues on the foundations of uncertainty analysis, and summarizes the history of the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC. One of the key findings is that there is reason to agree to disagree: the fundamental differences between the issues covered by the IPCC's three interdisciplinary Working Groups, between the type of information available, and between the dominant paradigms of the practitioners, legitimately lead to different approaches. We argue that properly using the IPCC's Guidance Notes for Lead Authors for addressing uncertainty, adding a pedigree analysis for key findings, and particularly communicating the diverse nature of uncertainty to the users of the assessment would increase the quality of the assessment. This approach would provide information about the nature of the uncertainties in addition to their magnitude and the confidence assessors have in their findings.
机译：在IPCC报告中始终如一地应对风险和不确定性是一项艰巨的挑战。专家小组的规模和跨学科背景，气候变化问题的复杂性及其政治背景产生了巨大的实际困难。本文的关键问题是，能否澄清三个IPCC工作组在不确定性处理方面所观察到的差异。为了解决这个问题，本文在不确定性分析的基础上回顾了一些关键问题，并总结了IPCC处理不确定性的历史。一项主要发现是，有理由同意不同意：IPCC的三个跨学科工作组所涵盖的问题之间的根本差异，可用信息的类型之间以及从业者的主要范式之间的根本差异在合理程度上导致了不同之处方法。我们认为，适当地使用IPCC的《主要作者指南》来解决不确定性，对主要发现增加谱系分析，尤其是将不确定性的多样性传达给评估的使用者，将会提高评估的质量。除了不确定性的大小和评估者对调查结果的信心外，这种方法还将提供有关不确定性性质的信息。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号