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Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest

机译：潜在的气候变化影响瑞典南部森林风灾的可能性

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We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071-2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961-1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15-40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071-2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.
机译：我们估计了由于气候变化而引起的气候变化和森林状况的可能变化如何影响超出临界风速的可能性，该临界风速预期会在瑞典南部的一个森林管理单位内造成风害。该管理单位的地势相对平缓，森林被挪威云杉（Picea abies（L.）Karst。）统治。我们将与场地指数（SI）和场地生产力相关的模型纳入了森林投影模型FTM。使用气候变化导致的净初级生产（NPP）的估计变化，并假设NPP的相对变化等于站点生产力的相对变化，我们模拟了SI逐步调整以响应气候变化时森林的未来可能状态。我们通过结合适应北方气候的BIOMASS模型，使用RCAO模型计算的2071-2100年的四个区域气候变化情景和1961-1990年的两个控制期情景，估算了NPP的变化。修改后的WINDA模型用于计算在模拟的森林未来状态下单个林分的风害发生概率。就全球平均变暖而言，所使用的气候变化情景代表了100年时间尺度上的非极端预测。据估计，直到2071-2100年，气候变化导致NPP增长15-40％。当采用今天的管理规则时，表明森林对风的敏感性增强。计算得出的风灾损害概率变化中的很大一部分归因于风的气候变化，而不是森林对风的敏感性变化。虽然基于HadAM3H通用环流模型（GCM）的区域气候情景表明风损害没有变化（SRES A2排放情景）或略有降低（SRES B2排放情景），但是基于ECHAM4 / OPYC3 GCM的情景指示增加了风的损害。但是，应在对气候变化和气候变化情景下的森林生长模拟进行完善时对评估进行审查。

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