...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Variation in the climatic response to SRES emissions scenarios in integrated assessment models
【24h】

Variation in the climatic response to SRES emissions scenarios in integrated assessment models

机译：综合评估模型中对SRES排放情景的气候响应变化

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have commonly been used to understand the relationship between the economy, the earth's climate system and climate impacts. We compare the IPCC simulations of CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, and global mean temperature changes associated with five SRES 'marker' emissions scenarios with the responses of three IAMs-DICE, FUND and PAGE-to these same emission scenarios. We also compare differences in simulated temperature increase resulting from moving from a high to a low emissions scenario. These IAMs offer a range of climate outcomes, some of which are inconsistent with those of IPCC, due to differing treatments of the carbon cycle and of the temperature response to radiative forcing. In particular, in FUND temperatures up until 2100 are relatively similar for the four emissions scenarios, and temperature reductions upon switching to lower emissions scenarios are small. PAGE incorporates strong carbon cycle feedbacks, leading to higher CO2 concentrations in the twenty-second century than other models. Such IAMs are frequently applied to determine 'optimal' climate policy in a cost-benefit approach. Models such as FUND which show smaller temperature responses to reducing emissions than IPCC simulations on comparable timescales will underestimate the benefits of emission reductions and hence the calculated 'optimal' level of investment in mitigation.
机译：综合评估模型（IAM）通常用于了解经济，地球气候系统和气候影响之间的关系。我们将IPCC的CO2浓度，辐射强迫和全球平均温度变化与五个SRES“标记”排放情景相关的模拟与三个IAM-DICE，FUND和PAGE-对这些相同排放情景的响应进行了比较。我们还比较了从高排放情景到低排放情景导致的模拟温度升高差异。这些IAM提供了一系列气候结果，其中一些与IPCC的结果不一致，这是由于对碳循环和对辐射强迫的温度响应的处理方式不同。尤其是，在FUND中，对于这四个排放情景，直到2100年的温度相对相似，并且切换到较低排放情景时的温度降低很小。 PAGE结合了强大的碳循环反馈，在二十二世纪比其他模型导致更高的CO2浓度。此类IAM通常以成本效益方法应用于确定“最佳”气候政策。在可比的时间尺度上，与IPCC模拟相比，诸如FUND之类的模型对减排的温度响应较小，这将低估减排量的收益，因此低估了减排的“最佳”投资水平。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号