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Water budgets of two watersheds in different climatic zones under projected climate warming

机译：预计气候变暖下不同气候区两个流域的水量预算

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A deterministic monthly runoff model (MINRUN96) was applied to watersheds with substantially different climates. One watershed is in the north-central U.S. (Minnesota) and is heavily timbered. The other is in the south-central U.S. (Oklahoma) and is mainly covered with pastures and agricultural crops. Runoff was simulated for past historical climate and two projected 2 x CO2 climate scenarios. The output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to specify the two 2 x CO2 climate scenarios. One GCM is the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) model and the other is from the Canadian Center of Climate Modelling (CCC). In the northern watershed more runoff is projected to occur in winter under a warmer climate and less runoff in spring. About 80% increase in fall runoff and 20% decrease in soil moisture in June and July is projected for the southern watershed. When runoff simulations for the 2 x CO2 climate scenarios were compared to past runoff, it was apparent that the change in runoff depended on both the season and the magnitude of the precipitation change. An increase in spring precipitation caused a significant increase in direct runoff, whereas an increase in fall precipitation caused only a slight increase in total runoff. Also the runoff-precipitation relationship in the warm and seasonally dry southern watershed is very different from that in the temperate and humid climate of the north. Therefore, runoff responses to projected climate change are substantially different in the two regions.
机译：确定性的月径流模型（MINRUN96）应用于气候差异很大的流域。一个分水岭在美国中北部（明尼苏达州），树木繁茂。另一个位于美国中南部（奥克拉荷马州），主要覆盖有牧场和农作物。对过去的历史气候和两个预计的2 x CO2气候情景模拟了径流。通用循环模型（GCM）的输出用于指定两个2 x CO2气候情景。一个GCM是戈达德空间研究所（GISS）模型，另一个是加拿大气候模型中心（CCC）。在北部流域，预计在温暖的气候下，冬季会有更多的径流发生，而春季则较少。预计南部流域6月和7月的秋季径流量增加80％，土壤水分减少20％。将2 x CO2气候情景的径流模拟与过去的径流进行比较时，很明显，径流的变化取决于季节和降水量的变化。春季降水增加导致直接径流显着增加，而秋季降水增加仅引起总径流略有增加。而且，在温暖和季节性干燥的南部流域，径流与降水的关系与北部的温带和湿润气候有很大的不同。因此，在这两个地区，径流对预计的气候变化的响应有很大不同。

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