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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Potential overwintering boundary and voltinism changes in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, in China in response to global warming
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Potential overwintering boundary and voltinism changes in the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, in China in response to global warming

机译：响应全球变暖，中国褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens的潜在越冬边界和伏地性变化

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The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (StAyenl) is a major rice insect pest in China and other Asian countries. This study assessed a potential northward shift in the overwintering boundaries and changes in the overwintering areas and voltinism of this planthopper species in China in response to global warming. Temperature data generated by 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2010 to 2099 were employed to analyze the planthopper's overwintering boundaries and overwintering areas in conjunction with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Planthopper voltinism from 1961 to 2050 was analyzed in scenario A2 using degree-day models with projections from the regional circulation model (RCM) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). In both analyses, 1961-1990 served as the baseline period. Both the intermittent and constant overwintering boundaries were projected to shift northward; these shifts were more pronounced during later time periods and in scenarios A2 and A1B. The intermittent overwintering area was modeled to increase by 11, 24 and 44 %, and the constant overwintering area, by 66, 206 and 477 %, during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Planthopper voltinism will increase by 0.5, 0.5-1.0 and 1.0-1.4 generations in northern, central and southern China, respectively, in 2021-2050. Our results suggest that the brown planthopper will overwinter in a much larger region and will produce more generations under future climate warming scenarios. As a result, the planthopper will exert an even greater threat to China's rice production in the future.
机译：褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens（StAyenl）是中国和其他亚洲国家的主要水稻害虫。这项研究评估了全球气候变暖对中国飞虱物种越冬边界可能发生的北移，越冬区域的变化和葡萄的侵染性。利用2010年至2099年的15个全球循环模型（GCM）生成的温度数据，结合三个排放情景特别报告（SRES），分析了飞虱的越冬边界和越冬区域。在情景A2中，使用度日模型分析了1961年至2050年的飞虱vol行性，并根据区域环流模型（RCM）的预测提供了区域气候影响研究（PRECIS）。在这两项分析中，1961-1990年均作为基准期。间歇性边界和恒定越冬边界都预计会向北移动;在以后的时间段以及方案A2和A1B中，这些变化更为明显。在2020年代，2050年代和2080年代，模拟的间歇越冬面积分别增加了11％，24％和44％，恒定越冬面积分别增加了66％，206％和477％。在2021-2050年，华北，华中和华南的飞虱的发生将分别增加<0.5、0.5-1.0和1.0-1.4代。我们的结果表明，在未来的气候变暖情景下，褐飞虱将在更大的区域越冬，并繁殖出更多的世代。结果，飞虱今后将对中国的稻米生产构成更大的威胁。

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