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A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses

机译:用于经济和政策分析的简单碳循环表示

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Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that couple the climate system and the economy require a representation of ocean CO2 uptake to translate human-produced emissions to atmospheric concentrations and in turn to climate change. The simple linear carbon cycle representations in most IAMs are not however physical at long timescales, since ocean carbonate chemistry makes CO2 uptake highly nonlinear. No linearized representation can capture the ocean's dual-mode behavior, with initial rapid uptake and then slow equilibration over a1/210,000 years. In a business-as-usual scenario followed by cessation of emissions, the carbon cycle in the 2007 version of the most widely used IAM, DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), produces errors of a1/22(a similar to)C by the year 2300 and a1/26(a similar to)C by the year 3500. We suggest here a simple alternative representation that captures the relevant physics and show that it reproduces carbon uptake in several more complex models to within the inter-model spread. The scheme involves little additional complexity over the DICE model, making it a useful tool for economic and policy analyses
机译:结合气候系统和经济的综合评估模型(IAM)要求代表海洋二氧化碳的吸收,才能将人为排放物转化为大气浓度,进而转化为气候变化。但是,大多数IAM中简单的线性碳循环表示在很长的时间内都不是物理的,因为海洋碳酸盐化学使CO2的吸收高度非线性。没有线性表示形式可以捕获海洋的双模行为,其最初的快速吸收然后在1 / 2110,000年中缓慢平衡。在照常运行的情况下,接着是排放停止,在2007版最广泛使用的IAM DICE(气候与经济的动态综合模型)中,碳循环产生的误差为a1 / 22(与)到2300年的碳排放量和a1 / 26(与3500年的碳排放量相似)。在这里,我们建议采用一个简单的替代表示法,它捕获了相关的物理现象,并表明它可以在几个更复杂的模型中重现碳吸收。模型传播。与DICE模型相比,该方案几乎没有额外的复杂性,使其成为进行经济和政策分析的有用工具

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