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Projected 21st century snowfall changes over the French Alps and related uncertainties

机译：预计21世纪法国阿尔卑斯山的降雪变化及相关不确定性

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摘要

Snowfall changes in mountain areas in response to anthropogenic forcing could have widespread hydrological, ecological and economic impacts. In this paper, the robustness of snowfall changes over the French Alps projected during the 21st century and the associated uncertainties are studied. In particular, the role of temperature changes on snowfall changes is investigated. Those issues are tackled through the analysis of the results of a very large ensemble of high-resolution regional climate projections, obtained either through dynamical or statistical downscaling. We find that, at the beginning and at the end of the cold season extending from November to March (included), temperature change is an important source of spread in snowfall changes. However, no link is found between temperature and snowfall changes in January and February. At the beginning and at the end of the cold season, the rate of change in snowfall per Kelvin does not depend much on the bias correction step, the period or the greenhouse gas scenario but mostly on the downscaling method and the climate models, the latter uncertainty source being dominant.
机译：由于人为强迫而造成的山区降雪变化可能会产生广泛的水文，生态和经济影响。在本文中，研究了21世纪法国阿尔卑斯山降雪变化的稳健性以及相关的不确定性。特别是，研究了温度变化对降雪变化的作用。这些问题是通过对大型高分辨率区域气候预测结果的分析来解决的，这些结果是通过动态或统计缩减而获得的。我们发现，在从11月到3月（包括）的寒冷季节的开始和结束时，温度变化是降雪变化扩散的重要来源。但是，在1月和2月的温度和降雪量变化之间没有发现联系。在寒冷季节开始和结束时，每开尔文降雪量的变化率在很大程度上不取决于偏差校正步骤，周期或温室气体情景，而主要取决于降尺度方法和气候模型，后者不确定性来源占主导地位。

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