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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Evaluation of three simulation approaches for assessing yield of rainfed sunflower in a Mediterranean environment for climate change impact modelling
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Evaluation of three simulation approaches for assessing yield of rainfed sunflower in a Mediterranean environment for climate change impact modelling

机译：评估用于评估地中海环境中雨育向日葵产量的三种模拟方法的气候变化影响建模

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摘要

The determination of the impact of climate change on crop yield at a regional scale requires the development of new modelling methodologies able to generate accurate yield estimates with reduced available data. In this study, different simulation approaches for assessing yield have been evaluated. In addition to two well-known models (AquaCrop and Stewart function), a methodological proposal considering a simplified approach using an empirical model (SOM) has been included in the analysis. This empirical model was calibrated using rainfed sunflower experimental field data from three sites located in Andalusia, southern Spain, and validated using two additional locations, providing very satisfactory results compared with the other models with higher data requirements. Thus, only requiring weather data (accumulated rainfall from the beginning of the season fixed on September 1st, and maximum temperature during flowering) the approach accurately described the temporal and spatial yield variability observed (RMSE = 391 kg ha(-1)). The satisfactory results for assessing yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions obtained in this study demonstrate the utility of empirical approaches with few data requirements, providing an excellent decision tool for climate change impact analyses at a regional scale, where available data is very limited.
机译：在区域范围内确定气候变化对农作物产量的影响，需要开发新的建模方法，以便能够利用减少的可用数据来生成准确的单产估算。在这项研究中，评估了评估产量的不同模拟方法。除了两个众所周知的模型（AquaCrop和Stewart函数）外，在分析中还考虑了使用经验模型（SOM）考虑简化方法的方法学建议。该经验模型是使用位于西班牙南部安达卢西亚的三个地点的雨水向日葵实验田间数据进行校准的，并使用另外两个位置进行了验证，与其他具有更高数据要求的模型相比，该结果非常令人满意。因此，该方法仅需要天气数据（9月1日确定的季节开始以来的累积降雨，开花期间的最高温度）就可以准确地描述观察到的时间和空间单产变化（RMSE = 391 kg ha（-1））。在这项研究中获得的在半干旱条件下评估向日葵产量的令人满意的结果表明，经验方法的使用几乎没有数据要求，为可用数据非常有限的区域规模的气候变化影响分析提供了极好的决策工具。

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