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Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

机译：伦敦热影响和适应性的概率空间风险评估

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摘要

High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1-2 A degrees C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32-69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have.
机译：高温和热浪会通过增加健康风险，死亡率和个人不适感而对社会产生重大影响。由于城市热岛效应（UHI）以及人口，资产和经济活动的高度集中和日益增加，这些影响在城市中更加严重。高温带来的风险现在已得到广泛认可，但由于对适应方案的收益量化不足以及相关的不确定性，抑制了按比例采取政策措施的动机和实施。这项研究利用城市温度的​​高空间分辨率概率预测以及人口变化预测，来提供热量对城市社会影响的概率风险评估。这项研究的重点是大伦敦及周边地区，在一个综合框架内评估了死亡风险，住宅建筑物的热不适以及适应方案。预计气候变化将增加未来与热有关的死亡率和居民的不适感。但是，将温度响应函数调整1-2 A摄氏度，以模拟适应和适应环境，相对于无适应方案，在测试的所有方案中，年热相关死亡率降低了32-69％。对于居民的不适，人们也看到了适应的类似好处。该研究还强调了通过降低反照率和人为热量排放，可以在降低死亡率和减少居民不舒适感方面带来额外的好处，从而减轻城市热岛。

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