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A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

机译：气候变化研究的新方案框架：背景，过程和未来方向

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摘要

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O'Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.
机译：科学界正在开发新的全球，区域和部门方案，以促进跨学科研究和评估，以探索可能对人类和自然系统构成风险的未来气候范围和相关物理变化;这些变化如何与社会，经济和环境发展途径相互作用;缓解和适应政策可在多大程度上规避和减少风险;各种政策组合的成本和收益;以及未来气候变化适应和减缓政策对策与可持续发展之间的关系。如本期特刊的三篇后续文章所述（Van Vuuren等人，2013; O'Neill等人，2013; Kriegler等人，2013）。 ，已提交在本期特刊中发布）。本文还讨论了在迭代和开放式过程中进一步开发，应用和修订此框架的研究需求。框架设计及其未来发展的关键目标是促进气候变化研究人员从广泛的角度和学科开展协作，以制定与政策和决策相关的方案，并探索人类和自然系统可能面临的挑战和机遇。其他气候变化。

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