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首页> 外文期刊>Coral reefs: journal of the International Society for Reef Studies >Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: Open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years
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Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: Open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years

机译：影响珊瑚礁的大规模压力因素：未来400年中开放海洋的海面温度和地表海水文石的饱和度

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摘要

One-third of the world's coral reefs have disappeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under threat today from various stress factors. The main global stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation (Ω _(arag)). Here, we use a climate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 4. 5, and RCP 8. 5), and their impact on the environmental stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open ocean Ω _(arag) over the next 400 years. Our simulations show that for the RCP 4. 5 and 8. 5 scenarios, the threshold of 3. 3 for zonal and annual mean Ω _(arag) would be crossed in the first half of this century. By year 2030, 66-85% of the reef locations considered in this study would experience severe bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef considered in this study (>97%) would experience severe thermal stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in temperatures.
机译：在过去的30年中，全球三分之一的珊瑚礁消失了，而今天，又有三分之一由于各种压力因素而受到威胁。已经确定对珊瑚礁的主要全球压力因素为海表温度（SST）的变化和地表海水文石饱和度的变化（Ω_（arag））。在这里，我们使用中等复杂性的气候模型，包括海洋总体环流模型和完全耦合的碳循环，并结合当前的年度SST年际变化观测资料，研究了三个IPCC代表性的浓度途径（RCP 3PD，RCP 4. 5和RCP 8. 5），以及它们在接下来的400年中对与海洋SST和海洋Ω_（arag）有关的珊瑚礁的环境压力的影响。我们的模拟显示，对于RCP 4. 5和8. 5情景，区域和年均Ω_（arag）的阈值3. 3将在本世纪上半叶越过。到2030年，这项研究中考虑的66-85％的珊瑚礁位置将至少每10年经历一次严重的漂白事件。不论浓度途径如何，到2050年，本研究中考虑的几乎所有礁石（> 97％）都会经历严重的热应力。在我们所有的模拟中，地表海水文石饱和度的变化都会导致温度的变化。

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