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Population variability and extinction risk [Review]

机译：人口变异和灭绝风险[评论]

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Population models generally predict increased extinction risk (ER) with increased population variability (PV), yet some empirical tests have provided contradictory findings. We resolve this conflict by attributing negative measured relationships to a statistical artifact that arises because PV tends to be underestimated for populations with short persistence. Such populations do not go extinct quickly as a consequence of low intrinsic variability; instead, the measured variability is low because they go extinct so quickly. Consequently, any underlying positive relationship between PV and ER tends to be obscured. We conducted a series of analyses to evaluate this claim. Simulations showed that negative measured relationships are to be expected, despite an underlying positive relationship. Simulations also identified properties of data, minimizing this bias and thereby permitting meaningful analysis. Experimental data on laboratory populations of a bruchid beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus) supported the simulation results. Likewise, with an appropriate statistical approach (Cox regression on untransformed data), reanalysis of a controversial data set on British island bird populations revealed a significant positive association between PV and ER (p = 0.03). Finally, a similar analysis of time series for naturally regulated animal populations revealed a positive association between PV and quasiextinction risk (p < 0.01). Without exception, our simulation results, experimental findings, reanalysis of published data, and analysis of quasiextinction risk all contradict previous reports of negative or equivocal relationships. Valid analysis of meaningful data provides strong evidence that increased population variability leads to increased extinction risk. [References: 50]
机译：人口模型通常会预测灭绝风险（ER）随着人口变异性（PV）的增加而增加，但是一些实证检验提供了相互矛盾的发现。我们通过将负的测量关系归因于统计假象来解决此冲突，这是因为对于持久性较短的人群，PV往往被低估了。由于内在变异性低，这些种群不会很快消失。相反，测得的变异性很低，因为它们很快消失了。因此，PV和ER之间任何潜在的正向关系都容易被模糊。我们进行了一系列分析以评估此要求。模拟显示，尽管存在潜在的正向关系，但预期的是负的测量关系。模拟还确定了数据的属性，从而最大程度地减少了这种偏差，从而可以进行有意义的分析。关于布鲁希甲虫（Callosobruchus maculatus）实验室种群的实验数据支持了模拟结果。同样，采用适当的统计方法（对未转换的数据进行Cox回归），对有争议的英国岛上鸟类种群的数据集的重新分析显示，PV和ER之间存在显着的正相关（p = 0.03）。最后，对自然调节动物种群的时间序列进行的类似分析显示，PV与拟灭绝风险之间存在正相关（p <0.01）。无一例外，我们的模拟结果，实验结果，对已发表数据的重新分析以及对拟灭绝风险的分析均与先前关于消极或模棱两可关系的报道相矛盾。有效数据的有效分析提供了有力的证据，表明种群变异性增加导致灭绝风险增加。 [参考：50]

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