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Forecasting the expansion of zebra mussels in the United States

机译：预测美国斑马贻贝的扩张

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Because zebra mussels spread rapidly throughout the eastern United States in the late 1980s and early 1990s, their spread to the western United States has been expected. Overland dispersal into inland lakes and reservoirs, however, has occurred at a much slower rate than earlier spread via connected, navigable waterways. We forecasted the potential western spread of zebra mussels by predicting the overland movement of recreational boaters with a production-constrained gravity model. We also predicted the potential abundance of zebra mussels in two western reservoirs by comparing their water chemistry characteristics with those of water bodies with known abundances of zebra mussels. Most boats coming from waters infested with zebra mussels were taken to areas that already had zebra mussels, buta small proportion of such boats did travel west of the 100th meridian. If zebra mussels do establish in western US. water bodies, we predict that population densities could achieve similar levels to those in the Midwestern United States, where zebra mussels have caused considerable economic and ecological impacts. Our analyses suggest that the dispersal of zebra mussels to the western United States is an event of low probability but potentially high impact on native biodiversity and human infrastructure. Combining these results with economic analyses could help determine appropriate investment levels in prevention and control strategies.
机译：由于斑马贻贝在1980年代末和1990年代初在美国东部迅速蔓延，因此可以预期它们会传播到美国西部。然而，陆上扩散到内陆湖泊和水库的速度要比早期通过连接的可通航水道扩散的速度要慢得多。我们通过使用产量受限的重力模型预测休闲划船的陆运来预测斑马贻贝在西部的潜在扩散。通过比较两个西部水库的水化学特征与已知的斑马贻贝丰度的水体的水化学特征，我们还预测了斑马贻贝的潜在丰度。大多数来自斑马贻贝出没的水域的船只被带到已经有斑马贻贝的地区，但是一小部分这样的船确实在第100个子午线以西行驶。如果斑马贻贝确实在美国西部建立。在水体中，我们预测人口密度可能会达到与美国中西部类似的水平，那里的斑马贻贝已经对经济和生态造成了重大影响。我们的分析表明，斑马贻贝向美国西部的扩散可能性很小，但对当地生物多样性和人类基础设施的影响可能很大。将这些结果与经济分析相结合，可以帮助确定预防和控制策略的适当投资水平。

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