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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >Demographic assessment of a Marbled Murrelet population from capture-recapture data
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Demographic assessment of a Marbled Murrelet population from capture-recapture data

机译：根据捕获-捕获数据对大理石的穆雷莱特人口进行人口统计学评估

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Population size is a fundamental variable of interest in most conservation programs, as are the demographic processes underlying variation in numbers. The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a seabird nesting in coastal old-growth forest in North America and is at the heart of a controversy concerning forest management. Despite the urgent need for a careful assessment of the demographic state of populations, the species is so secretive that its life history is poorly known and reliable estimates of the required vital rates are rare or missing. Here we present the first survival estimates obtained through capture-recapture data from a population in British Columbia, Canada. This population is in a site that has been heavily logged in the last 50 years and continues to be logged. Survival estimates (0.8289 and 0.9289 based on different samples corresponding to two capture techniques) fell within the range specified for small alcids, indicating that neither mortality nor emigration out of the study area is particularly high in the population. We used capture-recapture data to estimate the realized population growth rate (lambda) from 1991 to 2000 (λ) over cap was < 1 (0.9851), but the confidence interval was large and included 1 (stationary population). This estimate was obtained using part of the data (the sample with the higher survival rate) to meet the assumptions of the analytical approach. This lambda value might not reflect the growth rate of the overall population but may be specific to the segment of the population that successfully bred. The hypothetical value of A corresponding to a survival probability of 0.8289 was 0.8593, which suggests that the population may be declining if the local survival rate based on the combined samples is closer to the true value. Because of our low recapture rates and poor precision of estimates, there is still uncertainty regarding the health of this population. Development of field techniques and achievement of higher detection probability should reduce uncertainty in future demographic studies of Marbled Murrelets and allow refined assessment of the conservation status of populations. [References: 58]
机译：人口规模是大多数保护计划中关注的基本变量，而人口数量变化背后的人口统计过程也是如此。大理石的莫雷莱特（Brachyramphus marmoratus）是在北美洲沿海老龄林中筑巢的海鸟，是有关森林管理的争议的核心。尽管迫切需要仔细评估种群的人口状况，但该物种非常神秘，以至于其生活史知之甚少，很少或缺少对所需生命率的可靠估计。在这里，我们介绍了通过捕获-捕获数据从加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的一个人口获得的第一个生存估计。该人口位于一个在过去50年中已被大量记录的站点，并将继续被记录。存活率估计值（基于对应于两种捕获技术的不同样品的0.8289和0.9289）落在针对小类拟南芥的规定范围内，这表明死亡率和移出研究区域的人口均未特别高。我们使用捕获-捕获数据来估计1991年至2000年的上限的实际人口增长率（λ）<1（0.9851），但置信区间较大，其中包括1（固定人口）。使用部分数据（具有较高生存率的样本）获得此估计值，可以满足分析方法的假设。此lambda值可能无法反映总种群的增长率，但可能特定于成功繁殖的那部分人群。对应于生存概率0.8289的A的假设值为0.8593，这表明，如果基于合并样本的局部生存率更接近真实值，则总体可能会下降。由于我们的重新捕获率较低且估算精度较差，因此该人群的健康状况仍存在不确定性。田间技术的发展和更高的发现概率的实现应该减少大理石纹Murrelets未来人口统计研究中的不确定性，并可以对种群的保护状况进行精细评估。 [参考：58]

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