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Inferring vulnerability to introduced predators without experimental demonstration: Case study of Suter's skink in New Zealand

机译：在没有实验证明的情况下推断引进捕食者的脆弱性：新西兰苏特尔石龙子的案例研究

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The coast-inhabiting Suter's skink (Oligosoma suteri) has a fragmented distribution on islands around northern New Zealand, which has been attributed to the effects of introduced predators. We used classification trees to assess a range of factors that might influence the distribution of Suter's skinks. We then assessed the vulnerability to predation of juvenile and adult Suter's skinks by using a population viability analysis (PVA) model. We tested predictions from the classification tree and PVA models on two islands from which introduced Pacific rats (Rattus exulans) were removed. On one island, Suter's skinks were reintroduced (assuming previous extirpation by rats), and on the other the skinks had survived in the presence of Pacific rats. Our results revealed that populations of Suter's skinks are likely to be susceptible to predation where there are no bouldery beaches as refuges. Where these beaches are present, they are likely to function as refuges only if there is effective protection for adults. We conclude, however, that despite some apparently compelling circumstantial evidence of the effects of introduced predators on New Zealand lizards, it appears impractical to verify cause and effect with field manipulations if lizards and introduced predators do not already coexist. [References: 48]
机译：居住在海岸的苏特氏蜥蜴（Oligosoma suteri）在新西兰北部周围的岛屿上分布分散，这归因于引进掠食者的影响。我们使用分类树来评估可能影响Suter皮克分布的一系列因素。然后，我们通过使用种群生存力分析（PVA）模型评估了对幼小和成年Suter的石龙子捕食的脆弱性。我们在两个岛屿上测试了分类树和PVA模型的预测，从中删除了引入的太平洋大鼠（Rattus exulans）。在一个岛上，重新引入了苏特的石龙子（假设先前有老鼠灭绝），而在另一个岛上，石龙子在太平洋大白鼠在场的情况下幸存了下来。我们的研究结果表明，在没有大石滩作为避难所的地方，苏特族的石龙鱼种群很容易受到掠食。在有这些泳滩的地方，只有对成年人有有效的保护，它们才有可能成为避难所。然而，我们得出结论，尽管有一些明显的间接证据证明了引入的捕食者对新西兰蜥蜴的影响，但如果蜥蜴和引入的捕食者尚未共存，则无法通过野外操作来验证因果关系。 [参考：48]

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