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A fire-explicit population viability analysis of Hypericum cumulicola in Florida rosemary scrub

机译：佛罗里达迷迭香灌木丛中贯叶连翘的火种种群生存力分析

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摘要

Land managers seeking to reestablish historical fire regimes need guidance on how to apply prescribed fire to promote the population persistence of endangered species. We explored extinction risks of Hypericum cumulicola , a fire-dependent plant endemic to the Lake Wales Ridge, Florida (U.S.A). Stochastic and deterministic matrix population models based on six censuses (1994-1999) and data from several germination and seedling survival experiments were used to compare H. cumulicola demography and extinction probabilities under different fire regimes. Environmental variation associated with site, year, and winter precipitation was included in these models. We estimated time to extinction of unburned populations of different sizes and the probabilities of extinction under no fire, different regular fire-return intervals, and alternating short and long fire-return intervals. Following an initial fire, even relatively large populations of thousands of individuals may become locally extinct within 300-400 years without additional fires. Extinction probability declined as intervals between fires decreased. Fire intervals of >50 years resulted in an appreciable extinction probability after 200 years. Cycles of highly staggered short and long fire-return intervals caused slightly higher chances of extinction than regular fire-return intervals. The simulations were sensitive to estimates of survival in the seed bank. Active management will be required to restore favorable fire regimes in areas where fire has been suppressed. To maintain biodiversity, managers should consider variable fire regimes to match the requirements of a variety of species with different life histories. [References: 69]
机译：寻求重建历史火灾制度的土地管理人员需要有关如何使用规定的火灾来促进濒危物种的种群持久性的指导。我们探索了Hypericum cumulicola的灭绝风险，Hypericum cumulicola是佛罗里达州威尔士湖山脊（美国）特有的依赖火的植物。基于六次人口普查（1994-1999年）的随机和确定性矩阵种群模型，以及来自多个发芽和幼苗存活实验的数据，用于比较不同火情下的积水云杉人口和灭绝概率。这些模型包括与地点，年和冬季降水相关的环境变化。我们估算了不同大小的未燃烧种群的灭绝时间，以及在无火，有规律的常规回火间隔以及短和长回火间隔交替的情况下灭绝的可能性。初起大火后，即使是成千上万的相对较大的人口也可能在300-400年内局部灭绝，而不会发生其他大火。随着大火间隔时间的减少，灭绝概率也随之降低。 > 50年的火灾间隔在200年后导致相当大的灭绝概率。与常规回火间隔相比，高度交替的短和长回火间隔周期造成的灭绝机会略高。模拟对种子库中存活的估计很敏感。需要积极管理，以恢复火势被扑灭地区的有利火情。为了维持生物多样性，管理人员应考虑采用不同的射击方式，以适应具有不同生活史的各种物种的需求。 [参考：69]

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