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Predicting Risk of Habitat Conversion in Native Temperate Grasslands

机译：预测温带草原生境转变的风险

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that support diverse population of birds are being converted to cropland at an increasing rate in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Although limited funding is currently available to mitigate losses. accurate predictions of probability of conversion would increase the efficiency of conservation measures. We studied conversion of native grassland to cropland in the Missouri Coteau region of North and South Dakota (U.S.A) during 1989-2003. We estimated the probability of conversion of native grassland to cropland with satellite imagery and logistic regression models that predicted risk of conversion and by comparing the overlap between areas of high biological value and areas most vulnerable to conversion. Annualized probability of conversion was 0.004, and 36,540 ha of native grassland were converted to cropland during the period of our study. Our predictive models fit the data and correctly predicted 70% of observed conversions of grassland. Probability of conversion varied spatially and was correlated with landscape features like amount of surrounding grassland, slope, and soil productivity. Tracts of high biological value were not always at high risk of conversion. We concluded the most biologically valuable areas that are most vulnerable to conversion should be prioritized for conservation. This approach can be applied broadly to other systems and offers great utility for implementing conservation in areas with spatially variable biological value and probability of conversion.
机译：在北美的草原坑洼地区，支持多种鸟类的鸟类正越来越多地转变为农田。尽管目前有限的资金可用于减轻损失。准确的转换概率预测将提高保护措施的效率。我们研究了北达科他州和南达科他州（美国）在密苏里州科托地区（1989-2003年）的原生草地向农田的转化。我们使用卫星图像和Logistic回归模型估算了转化的风险，并通过比较具有较高生物价值的区域和最容易转化的区域之间的重叠程度，估计了原生草地向农田转化的可能性。年化转化概率为0.004，在我们的研究期间，有36,540公顷的天然草地已转化为农田。我们的预测模型可以拟合数据并正确预测70％的草地转化观测值。转化的可能性在空间上变化，并且与景观特征（如周围草地的数量，坡度和土壤生产力）相关。具有高生物价值的地区并不总是具有很高的转化风险。我们得出结论，应优先考虑最容易转化的最具生物价值的地区，以进行保护。这种方法可以广泛地应用于其他系统，并为在具有空间可变生物学价值和转化可能性的地区实施保护提供了很大的实用性。

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