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Costs of Expanding the Network of Protected Areas as a Response to Climate Change in the Cape Floristic Region

机译：佛得角地区因应对气候变化而扩大保护区网络的成本

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The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.
机译：随着气候变化，保护区的扩大是促进生物多样性继续存在（即生物组织各个层面上的生命）的战略的重要组成部分，但与气候变化有关的科学，社会和经济不确定性是其中的主要因素阻碍这种扩张的障碍。现在，新的气候变化和物种分布模型以及保护计划的新方法使探索与气候变化和物种响应相关的不确定性成为可能。然而，由于保护区成本的决定因素很多（而且不确定），对扩大保护区的成本和确定这些成本的方法的可靠估计很少。我们开发了一个成本核算模型，以估算扩大保护区的各种选择的成本范围，并探究驱动这些成本的变量。现有的计划扩展了南非开普植物区的保护区，以解决气候变化情况下的物种保护问题，从而为模型开发提供了依据。 50年总成本的现值从2.6亿美元（涉及与土地所有者达成协议且不补偿放弃的生产和相关收入的储备金选择权）到10.2亿美元（4228美元/公顷），其中涉及与土地所有者达成的协议。 -reserve选项涉及土地征用和保护。获得土地或补偿土地所有者的生产和发展机会的成本是所有方案总成本的主要驱动力，因为保护区扩展计划中确定的大部分区域都是城市和优质农业用地。总成本还受到保护区范围和折扣率变化的影响。诸如此类的模型生成的输出可能有助于告知实施策略以及分配监视，数据收集和模型开发方面的未来工作。

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