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Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach

机译：使用新颖的参与式建模方法设置保护管理阈值

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We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future.
机译：我们设计了一种参与式建模方法来设置管理阈值，以显示何时需要采取管理干预措施来应对不良的生态系统变化。设计这种方法的目的是在管理阈值时使用：面对多个相互竞争的目标，必须为环境指标设置;需要纳入科学理解和价值判断;并由建模经验有限的参与者设置。我们将我们的方法应用于一个案例研究，其中在保护区管理环境中为形成垫子的褐藻Hormosira bankii设置了管理阈值。包括管理人员和科学家在内的与会人员参加了研讨会来测试该方法，并设定了管理阈值来应对游客踩踏潮间带礁石的威胁。该方法包括权衡环境目标，维持潮间带礁社区的状况以及社会和经济目标，以确保管理干预具有成本效益。使用方案规划开发的生态方案是一项关键功能，为在何处设置管理阈值提供了基础。提出的方案表明，在威胁进程增加的情况下，可能出现的H. bankii覆盖率下降。参与者定义了4种离散的管理替代方案，以应对践踏的威胁，并估算了这些替代方案对每种生态情景下目标的影响。加权加性模型用于汇总参与者的结果估计。模型输出（决策分数）清楚地表达了不确定性，决策者可以考虑该不确定性，并用于告知在何处设置管理阈值。这种方法鼓励采取积极主动的保护方式，即先将管理阈值和相关行动定义为生态指标，而不是对未来的意外生态系统变化做出反应。

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