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An occupancy-based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

机译：基于占有率的美国西南部沙漠鱼类高危状况的量化

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Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so-called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889-2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post-development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34-61) and 15% (95% CI 6-33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001-2011), top performing (based on AIC(c)) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.
机译：沙漠鱼类由于其经济价值低以及与人类争夺水而成为世界上最受威胁的脊椎动物。鱼的生态复合体是美国科罗拉多河流域特有的鱼类，2个吮吸者（Catostomus latipinnis，Catostomus discobolus）和（Gilarobusta）（统称为所谓的三种），受多种压力因素的影响，并具有据称急剧下降。我们建立了一系列居住模型，以确定居住趋势，局部灭绝和局部殖民化率之间的关系，确定潜在的限制因素，并评估集体管理这三个物种的适宜性。在一个历史时期（1889-2011年），表现最好的模型（AICc）包括局部灭绝概率的正时间趋势和局部定殖概率的负趋势。随着洪水频率的降低，开发后局部灭绝的可能性增加。到时间序列结束时，抽油杆和the斗仍分别占据47％（95％CI 34-61）和15％（95％CI 6-33）的位置，并且使用两种抽油杆进行建模作为一组，另一组表现最好。在当代时期（2001年至2011年），表现最佳的模型（基于AIC（c））包括峰值年排放量。随着峰值排放量的增加，局部灭绝的概率降低，局部定殖的概率增加。在现代时期，将所有3个物种分成不同组的模型的结果类似于结合了2个抽油器但不包括的模型的结果。总的来说，这些结果证实了这些鱼类的减少与水的发展密切相关，并且相对于其历史分布而言，所有3种鱼类均急剧减少。此外，滑架的独特之处在于它的下降幅度最大，因此可能需要单独进行管理。我们的建模方法可能在其他情况下很有用，在这些情况下，目标数据稀少且保护状态和对多种物种的最佳管理方法尚不确定。

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