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首页> 外文期刊>Continental Shelf Research: A Companion Journal to Deep-Sea Research and Progress in Oceanography >A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls
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A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

机译：佛罗里达州西部陆架短小球藻动力学的三维生物物理模型：物理运输和潜在的浮游动物放牧控制研究

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The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L-1) of K brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2 x 10(6) cells L-1 in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K brevis at the 55 mu E m(-2) s(-1) isolume when mean concentrations of K brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L-1. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：建立有毒的鞭毛藻绽放的精确预测模型具有重要的生态意义，特别是在最容易受到其有害影响的地区。在西佛罗里达大陆架（WFS）和海岸尤其如此，在那儿，有毒的鞭毛鞭毛小孢粉（Karenia brevis）的暴发性开花事件经常给西佛罗里达州的宝贵商业渔业和旅游业造成严重破坏。为了解释赤潮维持和终止阶段的工作动态，在分析佛罗里达州萨拉索塔近海1999年10月赤潮时，使用了一个简单的三维耦合生物物理模型。数值实验结果表明：（1）实测流场和模型流场能够将观察到的K brevis近海接种物迁移至沿海边界16 km以内; （2）假设河口起始地点的离岸平流可忽略不计，短时间内K氏短background的本底浓度（1000个细胞L-1）可能会增长到超过2 x 10（6）个细胞L-1的赤潮，没有放牧损失，与其他浮游植物类别的竞争可忽略不计，并且没有营养限制; （3）假定没有其他损失的藻类生物量和浮游动物群落的摄食速率类似于car螨，则最大放牧压力不能阻止赤潮的发生或导致其终止。 （4）短K短视的上升行为是一个聚集机制，当K短短视的平均浓度超过100,000细胞L-1时，将K短短视集中在55μE m（-2）s（-1）等浓度。 。模型保真度的进一步改善将通过未来包括浮游植物竞争者，不同的养分利用率和限制方案，更真实的光谱光场渲染以及光抑制和补偿的伴随效果以及垂直混合的混合体来实现。迁移原生动物和后生动物放牧者。这些模型的改进目前正在开发中，将用于促进世界粮食首脑会议沿赤潮预报的业务模型的发展。 （c）2007 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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