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Making consistent IUCN classifications under uncertainty

机译：在不确定性下进行一致的IUCN分类

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摘要

The World Conservation Union (IUCN) defined a set of categories for conservation status supported by decision rules based on thresholds of parameters such as distributional range, population size, population history, and risk of extinction. These rules have received international acceptance and have become one of the most important decision tools in conservation biology because of their wide applicability, objectivity, and simplicity of use. The input data for these rules are often estimated with considerable uncertainty due to measurement error, natural variation, and vagueness in definitions of parameters used in the rules. Currently, no specific guidelines exist for dealing with uncertainty. Interpretation of uncertain data by different assessors may lead to inconsistent classifications because attitudes toward uncertainty and risk may have an important influence on the classification of threatened species. We propose a method of dealing with uncertainty that can be applied to the current IUCN criteria without altering the rules, thresholds, or intent of these criteria. Our method propagates the uncertainty in the input parameters and assigns the evaluated species either to a single category (as the current criteria do) or to a range of plausible categories, depending on the nature and extent of uncertainties. [References: 28]
机译：世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）根据分布范围，人口规模，人口历史和灭绝风险等参数阈值，为决策规则所支持的保护状态定义了一组类别。这些规则由于其广泛的适用性，客观性和使用的简便性而已被国际接受，并已成为保护生物学中最重要的决策工具之一。由于测量误差，自然变化和规则中使用的参数定义的含糊不清，这些规则的输入数据通常会以相当大的不确定性进行估算。当前，尚无用于处理不确定性的具体准则。不同评估者对不确定数据的解释可能会导致分类不一致，因为对不确定性和风险的态度可能会对受威胁物种的分类产生重要影响。我们提出了一种处理不确定性的方法，该方法可以应用于当前的IUCN标准，而无需更改这些标准的规则，阈值或意图。我们的方法会传播输入参数中的不确定性，并根据不确定性的性质和程度，将评估物种分配到一个类别（如当前标准那样）或一个合理的类别范围。 [参考：28]

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