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Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate

机译：在不断变化的气候中将保持选择权以供养护的成本降至最低

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Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decisionmaking under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.
机译：政策文件主张，管理人员在计划保护沿海生态系统免受气候变化影响的同时，应保持开放态度。但是，保持灵活性的实际成本和收益在很大程度上仍未得到探索，在不确定性下决策的替代方法可能会导致保护和其他社会目标取得更好的联合成果。例如，为沿海生态系统开放选择权会给开发商带来机会成本。我们设计了一个决策框架，将这些成本和收益与海平面上升幅度的概率预测相结合，以在沿海生态系统保护与适度沿海发展之间找到平衡。在此，我们建议管理者应该将不确定的海平面上升预测纳入决策框架，以评估保护与发展的收益和成本，而不是选择不公开。在我们的示例中，基于合理的海平面上升情景并假设风险中立的决策者，我们发现可以通过忽略不计的环境资产损失来实现实质性发展。帕累托保护与发展成果效率的特征为开发与保护之间权衡的强度提供了宝贵的见解。但是，需要做更多的工作来增进对替代性空间计划的后果以及决策者和利益相关者的价值判断和风险偏好的理解。

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