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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >Protected areas and climate change: A case study of the cacti in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlan biosphere reserve, Mexico
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Protected areas and climate change: A case study of the cacti in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlan biosphere reserve, Mexico

机译：保护区和气候变化：以墨西哥Tehuacan-Cuicatlan生物圈保护区中的仙人掌为例

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We examined the effects of climate change on the future distribution patterns of 20 species of Cactaceae in a protected area of Mexico. Our study area was the biosphere reserve of Tehuacan-Cuicatlan in central Mexico. Cactaceae species in the reserve were selected because they are often the dominant elements of the communities and play an important social role as a source of food, construction, and fuel. We used a floristic database and a bioclimatic modeling approach to examine 19 climatic parameters and to obtain the current potential distribution pattern of each species. Three different future climate scenarios were selected, on the basis of the predictions of several authors about future climate change. We considered the following three future scenarios: (1) +1degreesC and -10% rainfall; (2) +2degreesC and -10% rainfall; (3) +2degreesC and -15% rainfall. Each scenario implies different potential distribution patterns for the species involved; these patterns were analyzed in relationship to the reserve boundaries. In particular, the third scenario indicated three distinct possibilities: (1) a drastic distribution contraction in which most of the remaining populations will inhabit restricted areas out of reserve boundaries or will became extinct; (2) restriction of remaining populations mainly within reserve boundaries; and (3) contraction of species distribution pattern but populations remaining within and outside the reserve boundaries. Our results highlight the importance of considering the effects of possible future climate changes on the selection of conservation areas. Accordingly, we believe that our bioclimatic modeling approach represents a useful tool with which to make decisions about the definition of protected areas, once the current potential distribution pattern of some selected species is known. [References: 27]
机译：我们研究了气候变化对墨西哥保护区20种仙人掌科未来分布格局的影响。我们的研究区域是墨西哥中部的特瓦坎-崔卡特兰生物圈保护区。选择保护区中的仙人掌科物种是因为它们通常是社区的主要元素，并作为食物，建筑和燃料的来源发挥重要的社会作用。我们使用了植物数据库和生物气候建模方法来检查19个气候参数并获得每个物种当前的潜在分布格局。根据几位作者对未来气候变化的预测，选择了三种不同的未来气候情景。我们考虑了以下三种未来情况：（1）+ 1°C和-10％降雨; （2）+2摄氏度和-10％降雨; （3）+2摄氏度和-15％降雨。每个场景都暗示了所涉及物种的不同潜在分布模式。分析了这些类型与储量边界的关系。特别是，第三种情况表明了三种不同的可能性：（1）急剧的分配收缩，其中大多数剩余人口将居住在保护区之外的限制区中或将灭绝; （2）主要在保护区范围内限制剩余人口; （3）物种分布格局的收缩，但种群数量仍在保护区边界之内和之外。我们的结果强调了考虑未来可能的气候变化对保护区选择的影响的重要性。因此，我们相信，一旦已知某些选定物种的当前潜在分布格局，我们的生物气候模拟方法便是一种有用的工具，可用于对保护区的定义作出决定。 [参考：27]

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