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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation
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Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation

机译：在缓解气候变化的四种情况下，生物多样性热点地区的土地利用变化驱动的未来生境丧失和灭绝

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Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.
机译：随着越来越多的地球陆地表面适合人类发展，许多物种已被灭绝。将来，全球生物多样性将同时受到气候变化和土地利用变化的影响，后者目前是物种灭绝的主要驱动力。社会如何应对气候变化将严重影响生物多样性，因为减缓气候变化政策将减少气候变化的直接影响;但是，这些政策将影响土地使用的决策，这可能会对许多物种的栖息地产生负面影响。我们评估了由于相关的土地利用变化，未来的气候政策可能对生物多样性热点地区可居住面积的丧失可能产生的影响。我们根据政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告中使用的全球栅格化土地利用数据以及每个热点的栖息地范围和物种数据，根据历史土地利用变化（1500-2005年）估算了过去的灭绝事件。然后，我们估算了在替代性气候变化情景下（2005-2100年）由于未来土地利用变化而可能导致的物种灭绝。预计未来的土地利用变化将使热点地区的自然植被减少26-58％。结果，由于气候变化，到2100年所有热点地区的土地利用变化，相对于已经在1500年至2005年间发生的物种灭绝，其数量在大约220至21000（0.2％至16％）之间，具体取决于气候变化缓解方案和生物因素，例如物种-面积关系的斜率以及木材砍伐对灭绝的贡献。这些对未来可能灭绝的估计仅由土地利用变化驱动，如果考虑到气候变化的直接影响，可能会更高。可以通过将栖息地保护纳入情景开发中来减少热点地区预计未来土地利用的变化，或者通过减轻未来土地利用活动对热点地区生物多样性的影响，来减少未来的物种灭绝。

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