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首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >A district level assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change
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A district level assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change

机译：地区性评估印度农业对气候变化的脆弱性

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Assessing vulnerability to climate change and variability is an important first step in evolving appropriate adaptation strategies to changing climate. Such an analysis also helps in targeting adaptation investments, specific to more vulnerable regions. Adopting the definition of vulnerability given by IPCC, vulnerability was assessed for 572 rural districts of India. Thirty eight indicators reflecting sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure were chosen to construct the composite vulnerability index. Climate projections of the PRECIS model for A1B scenario for the period 2021-2050 were considered to capture the future climate. The data on these indicators were normalized based on the nature of relationship. They were then combined into three indices for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given by experts, to obtain the relative vulnerability index. Based on the index, all the districts were divided into five categories with equal number of districts. One more district was added to 'very high' and 'high' categories. The analysis showed that districts with higher levels of vulnerability are located in the western and peninsular India. It is also observed that the highly fertile Indo-Gangetic Plains are relatively more sensitive, but less vulnerable because of higher adaptive capacity and lower exposure.
机译：评估对气候变化和可变性的脆弱性，是发展适当的适应策略以适应气候变化的重要的第一步。这样的分析还有助于针对更脆弱地区的适应投资。根据IPCC给出的脆弱性定义，对印度572个农村地区的脆弱性进行了评估。选择了38个反映敏感性，适应能力和暴露程度的指标来构建综合脆弱性指数。为了捕捉未来的气候，考虑了2021-2050年A1B情景的PRECIS模型的气候预测。这些指标的数据根据​​关系的性质进行了归一化。然后将它们分为灵敏度，暴露和适应能力三个指数，然后与专家给出的权重进行平均，以获得相对脆弱性指数。根据该指数，将所有地区划分为五个类别，地区数量相等。 “非常高”和“很高”类别中又增加了一个区。分析表明，脆弱性较高的地区位于印度西部和半岛。还可以观察到，肥沃的印度恒河平原相对更敏感，但由于适应能力较高和暴露程度较低，因此脆弱性较低。

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