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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Horticulturae >Modelling of the impact of climate change on growth and fruiting of blackcurrant in the southern part of Romania.
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Modelling of the impact of climate change on growth and fruiting of blackcurrant in the southern part of Romania.

机译：气候变化对罗马尼亚南部黑加仑的生长和结果的影响的建模。

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In order to avoid negative influences of climatic factors by proper zoning and specific control methods, scientists have developed many climate-based models. In this paper, the local climatic stress factors were divided into chronically and accidentally occurring factors and 2 different methods were developed accordingly for limitation of their negative biological effects. For accidentally-occurring factors, the probability theory was used and for the chronically-occurring ones, regression methods were developed. For accidentally-occurring factors, a new simulation model was made to estimate not only the phenological dynamics until the end of flowering, but also to compute the probability of occurrence for climatic accidents caused by late frosts in black currant plantations. The damage probability was computed as the simultaneous occurrence of a susceptible phenophase and the critical temperature. The highest risk (8.6%) of frost damage was estimated for the 21-25 March period, when in 49.7% of the years the plants were between the stages of green tip and onset of flowering, in 0.3% of the years had bloomed and in 50% the plants were not yet in the stage of onset of vegetation. On average, for the 23 locations in Romania, the probability of damage occurring by late frosts was 3.45%. For the chronically occurring factors, link strengths between weather data and biological parameters of the black currant cultivars Record, Tinker and Bogatar were evaluated. The climate rating estimation model was based to identify time intervals that produced strong correlations between major climatic and biological parameters. Fruit yield was more correlated to the fruit number per tree than to average fruit weight and the fruit number per tree was significantly influenced by the number of flowers per bush. Monthly mean and minimum temperatures in July to August, as well as mean and minimum temperature and evapotranspiration in July, the year before harvest, influenced the number of flowers per bush significantly and negatively.
机译：为了通过适当的分区和特定的控制方法避免气候因素的负面影响，科学家开发了许多基于气候的模型。本文将局部气候压力因素分为慢性因素和偶然因素，并据此开发了两种不同的方法来限制其负面的生物学效应。对于偶然发生的因素，使用概率理论，对于长期发生的因素，开发回归方法。对于意外发生的因素，建立了一个新的模拟模型，不仅可以估计直到开花结束的物候动态，而且可以计算出黑加仑人工林晚霜冻引起的气候事故发生的可能性。损坏概率的计算方法是同时出现敏感的物相和临界温度。在3月21日至25日期间，霜冻破坏的最高风险（8.6％）被估计为当年，在49.7％的年中，植物处于绿尖到开花开始之间，而在0.3％的年中，开花和在50％的植物还没有进入植被开始阶段。在罗马尼亚的23个地区，平均而言，晚霜冻造成损坏的可能性为3.45％。对于长期出现的因素，评估了天气数据与黑加仑品种Record，Tinker和Bogatar的生物学参数之间的联系强度。气候等级估计模型的基础是确定时间间隔，该时间间隔在主要气候和生物参数之间产生了强烈的相关性。果实产量与每棵树的果实数比与平均果实重量更相关，并且每棵树的果实数受每灌木丛的花数显着影响。 7月至8月的月平均和最低温度，以及收获前一年的7月的平均和最低温度和蒸散量，显着且负面地影响了每灌木丛的花朵数量。

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