A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?

Muyin Wang; James E. Overland

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A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?

机译：30年之内北极无海冰吗？

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September 2008 followed 2007 as the second sequential year with an extreme summer Arctic sea ice extent minimum. Although such a sea ice loss was not indicated until much later in the century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report, many models show an accelerating decline in the summer minimum sea ice extent during the 21st century. Using the observed 2007/2008 September sea ice extents as a starting point, we predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037. The first quartile of the distribution for the timing of September sea ice loss will be reached by 2028. Our analysis is based on projections from six IPCC models, selected subject to an observational constraints. Uncertainty in the timing of a sea ice free Arctic in September is determined based on both within-model contributions from natural variability and between-model differences.

机译：2008年9月紧随2007年，是连续第二年，极地夏季北极海冰面积最低。尽管直到本世纪末在政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告中都没有指出这种海冰的损失，但许多模型都显示21世纪夏季最低海冰范围的加速下降。以观察到的2007/2008年9月海冰范围为起点，我们预测到2037年9月几乎没有海冰的北极的期望值。9月海冰损失时间的分布的第一个四分位数将是到2028年达到目标。我们的分析基于六个IPCC模型的预测，这些模型是在观测条件下选择的。基于自然变异性和模型间差异的模型内贡献，确定9月无海冰北极时间的不确定性。

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《Geophysical Research Letters》 |2009年第7期|共5页
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Muyin Wang; James E. Overland;
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2. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models [J] . Muyin Wang, James E. Overland Geophysical Research Letters . 2012,第18期

机译：30年内无海冰的夏季北极：CMIP5模型的更新
3. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? [J] . Muyin Wang, James E. Overland Geophysical Research Letters . 2009,第7期

机译：30年之内北极无海冰吗？
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A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?

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