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首页> 外文期刊>Geophysical Research Letters >Disequilibrium response of permafrost thaw to climate warming in Canada over 1850-2100
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Disequilibrium response of permafrost thaw to climate warming in Canada over 1850-2100

机译：1850-2100年加拿大多年冻土融化对气候变暖的不平衡响应

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摘要

Climate warming would induce permafrost thaw. However, the response of permafrost to atmospheric climate change could take from a few years to millennia. In this study, we simulated the transient changes in ground thermal regimes and permafrost status in Canada over 1850-2100 at a half-degree latitude/longitude resolution using a process-based model. The results show that the ground thermal regimes were in strong disequilibrium, with much stronger warming near the surface than in deeper ground. The reduction in permafrost extent (20.5-24.0%) by the end of the 21st century was much smaller than equilibrium projections, but permafrost thaw would continue after the 21st century even if air temperature stops increasing. Permafrost thaw from the top was very significant, and the area with supra-permafrost taliks increased exponentially, especially during the 21st century. This marked permafrost thaw from the top could have significant impacts on hydrology, landscape, soil biogeochemistry, ecosystems, and infrastructure.
机译：气候变暖将引起多年冻土融化。然而，多年冻土对大气气候变化的响应可能需要数年至数千年的时间。在这项研究中，我们使用基于过程的模型，以半纬度/经度分辨率模拟了1850-2100年间加拿大地热状况和多年冻土状态的瞬态变化。结果表明，地面热态处于强烈的不平衡状态，地表附近的变暖要比深层的大。到21世纪末，多年冻土的减少幅度（20.5-24.0％）远小于均衡预测，但即使气温停止升高，多年冻土的融化仍将持续到21世纪。顶部的多年冻土融化非常显着，且具有超多年冻土白垩质的区域呈指数增长，特别是在21世纪。顶部的这种多年冻土融化可能会对水文，景观，土壤生物地球化学，生态系统和基础设施产生重大影响。

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