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Quantifying the impact of dissimilar HPV vaccination uptake among Manitoban school girls by ethnicity using a transmission dynamic model

机译:使用传播动力学模型量化按种族划分的马尼托班女学生对HPV疫苗接种差异的影响

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Background: Gardasil, a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, began among grade 6 girls in Manitoba, Canada in 2008. In Manitoba, there is evidence that First Nations, Metis, and Inuit women (FNMI) have higher HPV prevalence, lower invasive cervical cancer (ICC) screening, and higher ICC incidence than all other Manitoban (ADM) women. We developed a mathematical model to assess the plausible impact of unequal vaccination coverage among school girls on future cervical cancer incidence. Methods: We fit model estimated HPV prevalence and ICC incidence to corresponding empirical estimates. We used the fitted model to evaluate the impact of varying levels of vaccination uptake by FNMI status on future ICC incidence, assuming cervical screening uptake among FNMI and AOM women remained unchanged. Results: Depending on vaccination coverage, estimated ICC incidence by 2059 ranged from 15% to 68% lower than if there were no vaccination. The level of cross-ethnic sexual mixing influenced the impact that vaccination rates among FNMI has on ICC incidence among AOM, and vice versa. The same level of AOM vaccination could result in ICC incidence that differs by up to 10%, depending on the level of FNMI vaccination. Similarly, the same level of FNMI vaccination could result in ICC incidence that differs by almost 40%, depending on the level of AOM vaccination. Conclusions: If we are unable to equalize vaccination uptake among all school girls, policy makers should prepare for higher levels of cervical cancer than would occur under equal vaccination uptake
机译:背景:人类乳头瘤病毒(HPV)疫苗Gardasil于2008年在加拿大曼尼托巴(Manitoba)的6级女孩中开始使用。在曼尼托巴(Manitoba),有证据表明,第一民族,梅蒂斯和因纽特人(FNMI)的人乳头瘤病毒感染率较高,宫颈浸润性较低癌症(ICC)筛查,且比所有其他Manitoban(ADM)妇女更高的ICC发生率。我们开发了一个数学模型来评估女生接种疫苗覆盖率不均等对未来宫颈癌发病率的合理影响。方法:我们将模型估计的HPV患病率和ICC发生率与相应的经验估计进行拟合。我们使用拟合模型来评估FNMI和AOM妇女宫颈筛查摄取量保持不变的情况下,FNMI状况不同水平的疫苗摄取量对未来ICC发生率的影响。结果:根据疫苗接种的覆盖率,到2059年,ICC发生率的估计值比没有疫苗接种时降低15%至68%。不同种族之间的性交混合程度影响了FNMI中的疫苗接种率对AOM中ICC发生率的影响,反之亦然。相同水平的AOM疫苗接种可能导致ICC发生率相差高达10%,具体取决于FNMI疫苗接种的水平。同样,相同水平的FNMI疫苗接种可能导致ICC发生率相差近40%,具体取决于AOM疫苗接种的水平。结论:如果我们不能使所有女学生的疫苗接种量均等,则政策制定者应该为子宫颈癌的患病率做准备,而在相同的疫苗接种率下要更高

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