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首页> 外文期刊>Vaccine >The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance
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The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance

机译：在全球疫苗和免疫联盟支持的73个国家中，预计将在2011-2020年实施疫苗接种的估计死亡率影响

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Introduction: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits
机译：简介：2011年8月至2011年12月，由GAVI联盟和比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会组成了一个数学建模专业的跨学科小组，以评估疫苗接种对GAVI联盟支持的73个国家的影响。方法：估计2011-2020年期间预计要接种疫苗的人避免的死亡人数包括十种抗原：乙型肝炎，黄热病，B型流感嗜血杆菌，肺炎链球菌，轮状病毒，脑膜炎奈瑟氏球菌血清群A，日本脑炎，人乳头瘤病毒，麻疹和风疹。影响的计算方法是：在未接种疫苗的人群中，预期的死亡人数与未接种疫苗的人群中的预期死亡人数之差。接种疫苗的人数是根据2011 GAVI战略需求预测得出的，其中包括每个国家的疫苗接种预计日期，疫苗接种覆盖率以及目标人群数量。结果：到2020年，预计几乎所有由GAVI支持的地方病疾病国家都将引入乙型肝炎，Hib，肺炎球菌，轮状病毒，风疹，黄热病，脑膜炎奈瑟氏球菌血清群A和日本脑炎疫苗。预计将有55个国家（占75％）引入人乳头瘤病毒疫苗。预计在2011-2020年期间使用这些疫苗可避免990万人死亡。麻疹疫苗的常规和补充免疫活动有望避免另外的1,340万人死亡。接种第一剂麻疹（16.5），人乳头瘤病毒（15.1）和乙型肝炎（8.3）疫苗的估计每千人避免的死亡人数最高。避免的预期死亡人数中约有52％将在非洲，东南亚27％和东地中海13％。结论：在2011年至2020年期间，对73个符合GAVI资格的国家/地区的人员进行了疫苗接种，预计将对公共卫生产生重大影响，特别是在非洲和东南亚这两个高死亡率地区。在这些国家中接种疫苗的实际影响可能高于我们的估计，因为分析中未包括几种广泛使用的抗原。由于缺乏有关潜在疾病负担和发​​展中国家针对致命疾病结局的疫苗有效性的数据，我们的估算质量受到限制。我们计划每年更新估算以反映更新的需求预测，根据新信息的结果完善模型假设，并将分析范围扩展到发病率和经济效益

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