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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Constraining spatial variability of methane ebullition seeps in thermokarst lakes using point process models
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Constraining spatial variability of methane ebullition seeps in thermokarst lakes using point process models

机译：使用点过程模型限制喀斯特湖泊甲烷沸腾渗漏的空间变异性。

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摘要

Ebullition is an important but highly heterogeneous mode of methane emission in lakes. Variability in both spatial distribution and temporal flux creates difficulty in constraining uncertainties in whole lake emission estimates. Analysis of short- and long-term flux measurements on 162 ebullition seeps in 24 panarctic lakes confirmed that seep classes, identified a priori according to bubble patterns in winter lake ice, have distinct associated fluxes irrespective of lake or region. To understand the drivers of ebullition's spatial variability and uncover ways to better quantify ebullition in field work, we combined point-process modeling with field measurements of 2679 GPS-marked and classified ebullition seeps in three Alaskan thermokarst (thaw) lakes that varied by region, permafrost type, and seep distribution. Spatial analysis of field data revealed that seeps cluster above thawed permafrost soil mounds in lake bottoms. Seep density and clustering, determined from field observations, were used as parameters in a Poisson cluster process model to simulate seeps across entire lake surfaces. Sampling results indicated that (1) applying seep-class mean flux values to unmeasured seeps counted on ice-bubble surveys does not compromise accuracy of whole lake flux estimates; (2) three distributed 50 m~2 ice-bubble survey transects more accurately estimate mean lake ebullition than 17 dispersed 0.2 m~2 bubble traps; and (3) the uncertainty associated with whole lake mean ebullition estimated by lake-ice survey transects is inversely related to seep density. Findings suggest that transect field data collected on a large number of widely distributed lakes can be combined to provide a well-constrained, bottom-up estimate of regional lake ebullition.
机译：汽化是湖泊中甲烷排放的一种重要但高度异质的方式。空间分布和时间通量的变化在限制整个湖泊排放估算的不确定性方面造成了困难。对24个泛湖中162个沸腾渗漏的短期和长期通量测量结果进行的分析证实，根据冬季湖泊冰层中的气泡模式先验确定的渗流类别具有不同的相关通量，而与湖泊或地区无关。为了了解ebullition空间变异性的驱动因素并发现在野外工作中更好地量化ebullition的方法，我们将点过程建模与2679个GPS标记并分类的ebullition渗水的现场测量结果结合起来，对三个阿拉斯加热喀斯特（融化）湖进行了区域划分，多年冻土类型和渗流分布。现场数据的空间分析表明，渗漏聚集在湖底融化的多年冻土土丘上方。根据现场观察确定的渗流密度和聚类被用作泊松聚类过程模型中的参数，以模拟整个湖面的渗流。抽样结果表明：（1）将渗流类平均通量值应用于在冰泡调查中计数的未测渗流，不会损害整个湖泊通量估算的准确性; （2）与17个分散的0.2 m〜2气泡陷阱相比，三个分布的50 m〜2的冰气泡测量断面更准确地估计了平均湖沸腾; （3）湖冰调查样带估计的全湖平均沸腾的不确定性与渗流密度成反比。研究结果表明，可以将在大量分布广泛的湖泊上收集的样地数据结合起来，以提供对区域湖泊沸腾的严格约束，自下而上的估计。

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