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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Benchmarking historical CMIP5 plant functional types across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States
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Benchmarking historical CMIP5 plant functional types across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States

机译：对美国中西部和东北部的历史CMIP5植物功能类型进行基准测试

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Centennial-scale climate-ecosystem feedbacks are a major source of predictive uncertainty for land-atmosphere fluxes of energy, carbon, and water. Accurate representations of plant functional type (PFT) distributions through time and space are required for modeling centennial-scale feedbacks within Earth system models (ESMs). We tested the ability of ESMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to capture historical PFT distributions at the time of Euro-American settlement in the Northeastern United States against a new subcontinental-scale data set of historical tree abundances derived from forest composition surveys. To identify and diagnose errors in ESM-simulated PFT distributions and quantify impacts on modeled albedo, net primary productivity, and transpiration, we analyzed actual and modeled PFT distributions with respect to historical mean annual climate and modeled elasticity among PFTs, climate, and vegetation-atmosphere fluxes. Historical PFT distributions were poorly matched between ESMs and the settlement-era data, often due to inaccurate PFT-climate relationships within ESMs, particularly for evergreen trees. Some models exhibited large local, but regionally compensating, errors in simulated albedo, net primary productivity, and transpiration due to inaccurate PFT distributions, while others had systematic regional biases in vegetation-atmosphere fluxes. Internal variable elasticity varied among ESMs, and these differences closely corresponded to model skill in predicting PFT distributions. New historical benchmarks like the settlement-era vegetation data provide opportunities to confront ESMs, parse sources of error, and improve simulations of historical and future vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks.
机译：百年尺度的气候-生态系统反馈是能源，碳和水的陆地-大气通量预测不确定性的主要来源。在地球系统模型（ESM）中建模百年尺度的反馈时，需要准确表示植物功能类型（PFT）在时间和空间上的分布。我们测试了耦合模型比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）中的ESMs在新的次大陆规模的历史森林丰度数据集的次大陆规模数据集下，捕获美国东北部欧美定居时的历史PFT分布的能力成分调查。为了识别和诊断ESM模拟的PFT分布中的错误并量化对模拟反照率，净初级生产力和蒸腾作用的影响，我们针对历史平均年气候以及PFT，气候和植被之间的弹性进行了分析，分析了实际和模拟的PFT分布。大气通量。 ESM和定居时期的数据之间的历史PFT分布很难匹配，这通常是由于ESM中的PFT-气候关系不准确，尤其是对于常绿乔木而言。一些模型由于不精确的PFT分布而在模拟反照率，净初级生产力和蒸腾方面表现出较大的局部但区域补偿性误差，而其他模型则在植被-大气通量方面存在系统性的区域性偏差。 ESM之间的内部变量弹性各不相同，这些差异与预测PFT分布的模型技巧密切相关。新的历史基准（例如定居时期的植被数据）为对抗ESM，解析错误源以及改进对历史和未来植被-大气反馈的模拟提供了机会。

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