...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Earth and Planetary Science Letters: A Letter Journal Devoted to the Development in Time of the Earth and Planetary System >Improving the estimate of the secular variation of Greenland ice mass in the recent decades by incorporating a stochastic process
【24h】

Improving the estimate of the secular variation of Greenland ice mass in the recent decades by incorporating a stochastic process

机译：通过纳入随机过程，提高近几十年中格陵兰冰块世俗变化的估计

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The irregular interannual variations observed in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) mass balance can be interpreted as stochastic. These variations often have large amplitudes, and, if not accounted for correctly in the mass change model parameterization, could have profound impacts on the estimate of the secular trend and acceleration. Here we propose a new mass trajectory model that includes both the conventional deterministic components and a stochastic component. This new model simultaneously estimates the secular rate and acceleration, seasonal components, and the stochastic component of mass changes. Simulations show that this new model improves estimates of model parameters, especially accelerations, over the conventional model without stochastic component. Using this new model, we estimate an acceleration of -1.6 +/- 1.3 Gt/yr(2) in mass change (minus means mass loss) for 2003-2017 using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and an acceleration of -1.1 +/- 1.3 Gt/yr(2) using the modeled surface mass balance plus observed ice discharge. The corresponding rates are estimated to be -288.2 +/- 12.7 Gt/yr and -274.9 +/- 13.0 Gt/yr. The greatest discrepancies between the new and the conventional model parameter determinations are found in the acceleration estimates, -1.6 Gt/yr(2) vs. -7.5 Gt/yr(2) from the GRACE data. The estimated accelerations using the new method are apparently smaller than those estimated by other studies in terms of mass loss. Our quantitative analysis elucidates that the acceleration estimate using the conventional method is the lower bound (i.e., -7.5 Gt/yr(2) for 2003-2017) while the acceleration estimated by the new method lies in the middle of the possible ranges. It is also found that these discrepancies between the new and the conventional methods diminish with sufficiently long (>20 yr) observation records. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译：在格陵兰冰盖（GRIS）质量平衡中观察到的不规则续差可以被解释为随机性。这些变化通常具有很大的幅度，如果在质量变化模型参数化中没有正确考虑，则可能对世俗趋势和加速度的估计产生深远的影响。在这里，我们提出了一种新的质量轨迹模型，包括传统的确定性组件和随机分量。这种新模式同时估计了群体变化的世俗速率和加速度，季节性成分和随机分量。仿真表明，这种新模型在没有随机分量的情况下改善了在传统模型上的模型参数，特别是加速的估计。使用这种新模型，使用重力恢复和气候实验（Grace）数据和加速度，估计2003 - 2017年的大规模变化（减去意味着大规模损失）的加速度-1.6 +/- 1.3 gt / Yr（2）的加速度-1.1 +/- 1.3 gt / yr（2）使用模型表面质量平衡加上观察到的冰放电。相应的速率估计为-288.2 +/- 12.7 gt / yr和-274.9 +/- 13.0 gt / yr。新的和传统模型参数测定之间的最大差异在加速度估计中找到-1.6 gt / Yr（2）与宽限数据的-7.5 gt / Yr（2）。使用新方法的估计加速度明显小于大气损失方面的其他研究估计的加速度。我们的定量分析阐明了使用常规方法的加速度估计是2003 - 2017年的下界（即-7.5gt / Yr（2）），而新方法估计的加速度在可能的范围内。还发现新的和传统方法之间的这些差异与足够长（> 20年）观察记录的差异减少。 （c）2020提交人。由elsevier b.v出版。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号