Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High‐Resolution Large‐Ensemble Simulations

Yoshida Kohei; Sugi Masato; Mizuta Ryo; Murakami Hiroyuki; Ishii Masayoshi

摘要

Abstract >Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000?year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4?K surface warming climates with a 60?km global atmospheric model. The global number of TCs decreases by 33% in the future projection. Although geographical TC occurrences decrease generally, they increase in the central and eastern parts of the extra tropical North Pacific. Meanwhile, very intense (category 4 and 5) TC occurrences increase over a broader area including the south of Japan and south of Madagascar. The global number of category 4 and 5 TCs significantly decreases, contrary to the increase seen in several previous studies. Lifetime maximum surface wind speeds and precipitation rate are amplified globally. Regional TC activity changes have large uncertainty corresponding to sea surface temperature warming patterns. TC‐resolving large‐ensemble simulations provide useful information, especially for policy making related to future climate change. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >在全球热带旋风（Tc）活动中的预计未来变化使用5,000？年度级集合评估模拟当前和4？K表面变暖气候，具有60 km全球大气模型。未来投影的全球TCS数量减少了33％。虽然地理TC出现普遍减少，但它们增加了额外热带北太平洋的中央和东部。与此同时，非常激烈（第4类和5类）TC出现在包括日本南部和马达加斯加南部的更广泛的区域上增加。全球4类和5个TCS的数量显着降低，这与前几项研究中的增加相反。寿命最大表面风速和降水率在全球范围内放大。区域TC活性变化具有与海表面温度变暖模式相对应的大不确定性。解决方案 - 解决大集合模拟提供了有用的信息，特别是对于与未来气候变化有关的政策制作。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第19期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共8页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yoshida Kohei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Yoshida Kohei;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sugi Masato&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sugi Masato;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mizuta Ryo&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mizuta Ryo;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Murakami Hiroyuki&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Murakami Hiroyuki;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ishii Masayoshi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ishii Masayoshi;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Meteorological Research InstituteTsukuba Japan;</p> <p>Meteorological Research InstituteTsukuba Japan;</p> <p>Meteorological Research InstituteTsukuba Japan;</p> <p>Meteorological Research InstituteTsukuba Japan;</p> <p>Meteorological Research InstituteTsukuba Japan;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tropcal cyclone&option=203" rel="nofollow">tropcal cyclone;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=global warming&option=203" rel="nofollow">global warming;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=large‐ensemble simulations&option=203" rel="nofollow">large‐ensemble simulations;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=high‐resolution model&option=203" rel="nofollow">high‐resolution model;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：热带旋风;全球变暖;大集合模拟;高分辨率模型; 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