Midlatitude Summer Drying: An Underestimated Threat in CMIP5 Models?

Douville H.; Plazzotta M.

摘要

Abstract >Early assessments of the hydrological impacts of global warming suggested both an intensification of the global water cycle and an expansion of dry areas. Yet these alarming conclusions were challenged by a number of latter studies emphasizing the lack of evidence in observations and historical simulations, as well as the large uncertainties in climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here several aridity indices and a two‐tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer midlatitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long‐term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected midlatitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models. Mitigating global warming therefore remains a priority to avoid dangerous impacts on global water and food security. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>摘要</标题> >全球变暖水文影响的早期评估表明全球水循环的强化膨胀干燥区域。然而，这些惊人的结论受到许多后一种研究的挑战，强调缺乏观察和历史模拟的证据，以及来自耦合模型离婚项目（CMIP5）的第五阶段的气候预测中的大不确定性。在这里，使用了几个干燥的指数和双层归因策略来证明最近在北方洲的夏季中间干燥，这主要归因于人为气候变化。该出现的信号被示出为CMIP5突起中长期干燥的预兆。因此，观察到的干旱指标的线性趋势可以用作观察约束，并表明预计的中间夏季干燥被大多数CMIP5模型低估了。因此，减缓全球变暖仍然是避免对全球水和粮食安全的危险影响的优先事项。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第19期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Douville H.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Douville H.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Plazzotta M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Plazzotta M.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Météo‐France/CNRMToulouse France;</p> <p>Météo‐France/CNRMToulouse France;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=land surface drying&option=203" rel="nofollow">land surface drying;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=attribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">attribution;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=emerging constraint&option=203" rel="nofollow">emerging constraint;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候变化;陆地干燥;归因;新兴约束; 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