Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High‐Resolution Simulations

Schneider Tapio; Lan Shiwei; Stuart Andrew; Teixeira Jo?o

摘要

Abstract >Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate global observations and local high‐resolution simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from both and quantifies uncertainties. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted high‐resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through matching low‐order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high‐resolution simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to realize it. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract type =“main”xml：lang =“en”xml：id =“grl56715-abs-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >气候预测继续受到大的损害不确定性，它起源于需要参数化的过程，例如云，对流和生态系统。但现在达到快速进展。来自数据同化和机器学习的新的计算工具和方法使得可以在地球系统模型（ESM）中集成全局观测和本地高分辨率模拟，系统地从两者兼容并量化不确定性。在这里，我们提出了这种ESM的蓝图。我们概述了参数化方案如何从全局观测和目标高分辨率模拟中学习，例如，云和对流，通过匹配ESMS，观察和高分辨率模拟之间的低阶统计数据。我们说明了具有简单动态系统的ESMS的学习算法，该系统分享了气候系统的特性;我们讨论了拟议的框架礼物的机会和留下仍然实现它的挑战。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第24期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共22页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Schneider Tapio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Schneider Tapio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lan Shiwei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lan Shiwei;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Stuart Andrew&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Stuart Andrew;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Teixeira Jo?o&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Teixeira Jo?o;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>California Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>California Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>California Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Earth system models&option=203" rel="nofollow">Earth system models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=parameterizations&option=203" rel="nofollow">parameterizations;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=data assimilation&option=203" rel="nofollow">data assimilation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=machine learning&option=203" rel="nofollow">machine learning;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kalman inversion&option=203" rel="nofollow">Kalman inversion;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Markov chain Monte Carlo&option=203" rel="nofollow">Markov chain Monte Carlo;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：地球系统模型;参数化;数据同化;机器学习;卡尔曼反转;马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗; 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