Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

Totz Sonja; Tziperman Eli; Coumou Dim; Pfeiffer Karl; Cohen Judah

摘要

Abstract >The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster‐based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis‐based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“Grl56702-Abs-Abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>摘要</ title> >欧洲气候在全球变暖下变化特别是地中海地区已被确定为气候变化的热点，气候模型投射冬季降雨量减少，夏季热波的夏季热量非常明显。这些趋势在历史时期已经是可检测的。因此，预测季节性干旱会提前预测季节性干旱，使水管理人员和利益相关者可以准备减轻有害影响。我们开发了一种新的基于集群的实证预测方法，以预测冬季降水异常。该算法不仅考虑了强度，还考虑了前体的模式。我们将算法与动态预测模型进行比较和基于规范相关分析的预测方法，证明我们的预测方法在地中海和欧洲地区的时间和模式相关方面表现更好。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第24期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Totz Sonja&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Totz Sonja;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tziperman Eli&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tziperman Eli;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Coumou Dim&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Coumou Dim;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Pfeiffer Karl&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Pfeiffer Karl;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cohen Judah&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cohen Judah;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdam Germany;</p> <p>Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and School of Engineering and Applied SciencesHarvard UniversityCambridge MA USA;</p> <p>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdam Germany;</p> <p>Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc.Lexington MA USA;</p> <p>Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc.Lexington MA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=precipitation anomaly&option=203" rel="nofollow">precipitation anomaly;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seasonal forecast&option=203" rel="nofollow">seasonal forecast;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=cluster analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">cluster analysis;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：降水异常;季节性预测;集群分析; 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</span> <span> . 2004-10-14</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：用户携带的无线终端区域降水预报的预报方法，应用气象雷达站网测得并经雷达数据汇总计算机处理的降水雷达数据 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130443152730.html">While the itsutoria/gadoliniums/European Pia coprecipitation single distributed spherical grain null which, is obtained production manner of the itsutoria/gadoliniums/European Pia coprecipitation single distributed spherical grain with</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  JP3565472B2 </span> <span> . 2004-09-15</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：而Itutoria / gdoliniums / European Pia共沉淀单一分布的球形晶粒的空，则得到了Itutoria / gdoliniums / European Pia共沉淀单一分布的球形晶粒的生产方式。 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> 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