Tropical Pacific SST and ITCZ Biases in Climate Models: Double Trouble for Future Rainfall Projections?

Samanta Dhrubajyoti; Karnauskas Kristopher B.; Goodkin Nathalie F.

摘要

Abstract >The double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias remains a persistent problem in coupled general circulation model simulations. Due to the strong sea surface temperature (SST)‐convection relationship in the tropics, precipitation biases are sensitive to background SST. Using historical simulations of 24 coupled general circulation models and an atmospheric general circulation model, we show that cold equatorial SST biases at least exacerbate double Intertropical Convergence Zone biases in the Pacific. A linear regression model is used to demonstrate that improved predictability of precipitation trends is possible with such model‐dependent information as mean‐state SST biases accompanying projected SST trends. These results provide a better understanding of the root of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias and a possible path to reduced uncertainty in future tropical precipitation trends. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <Title Type =“main”>抽象</ title> >双闭圈融合区域偏置仍然是耦合通用循环模型模拟中的持久性问题。由于热带地区的海面温度强（SST） - 连接关系，降水偏差对背景SST敏感。使用24耦合通用循环模型和大气综合循环模型的历史模拟，我们表明冷赤道SST偏差至少加剧了太平洋地区的双闭闭社偏差。线性回归模型用于证明，这种模型依赖的信息作为伴随的SST趋势的平均状态SST偏差，可以提高降水趋势的可预测性。这些结果可以更好地了解双闭圈会聚区偏差的根源和可能的路径，以降低未来的热带降水趋势的不确定性。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Samanta Dhrubajyoti&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Samanta Dhrubajyoti;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Karnauskas Kristopher B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Karnauskas Kristopher B.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Goodkin Nathalie F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Goodkin Nathalie F.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Asian School of the EnvironmentNanyang Technological UniversitySingapore;</p> <p>Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulder Colorado USA;</p> <p>Asian School of the EnvironmentNanyang Technological UniversitySingapore;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=double ITCZ&option=203" rel="nofollow">double ITCZ;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=model biases&option=203" rel="nofollow">model biases;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate models&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=precipitation trends&option=203" rel="nofollow">precipitation trends;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=cold tongue SST&option=203" rel="nofollow">cold tongue SST;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tropical Pacific&option=203" rel="nofollow">tropical Pacific;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：双ITCZ;模型偏见;气候模型;降水趋势;冷舌SST;热带太平洋; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature 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