A Geodesy‐ and Seismicity‐Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles

Rollins Chris; Avouac Jean‐Philippe

摘要

Abstract > We estimate time‐independent earthquake likelihoods in central Los Angeles using a model of interseismic strain accumulation and the 1932–2017 seismic catalog. We assume that on the long‐term average, earthquakes and aseismic deformation collectively release seismic moment at a rate balancing interseismic loading, mainshocks obey the Gutenberg‐Richter law (a log linear magnitude‐frequency distribution [MFD]) up to a maximum magnitude and a Poisson process, and aftershock sequences obey the Gutenberg‐Richter and “B?th” laws. We model a comprehensive suite of these long‐term systems, assess how likely each system would be to have produced the MFD of the instrumental catalog, and use these likelihoods to probabilistically estimate the long‐term MFD. We estimate M <sub>max</sub> ?=?6.8?+?1.05/?0.4 (every ~300?years) or M <sub>max</sub> ?=?7.05?+?0.95/?0.4 assuming a truncated or tapered Gutenberg‐Richter MFD, respectively. Our results imply that, for example, the (median) likelihood of one or more M <sub> w </sub> ?≥?6.5 mainshocks is 0.2% in 1?year, 2% in 10?years, and 18–21% in 100?years. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><抽象类型=“主要”的xml：郎=“EN”> <标题类型=“主”>抽象</ TITLE> >我们估计使用震间应变积累的模型在洛杉矶中央时间无关地震似然性和1932-2017地震目录。我们认为，在长期平均水平，地震和抗震变形中，主斯汇率在速度平衡造型载荷的速度释放地震时刻，主斯克斯遵守了古顿伯格 - 里希特法（将Log线性大小分布[MFD]）达到最大幅度和泊松过程，余震序列服从了古堡 - 里希特和“B？Th”法律。我们模拟了这些长期系统的全面套件，评估每个系统的MFD如何产生乐器目录，并使用这些可能性来概率估计长期MFD。我们估计 m </ i> <sum> max </ sub>？=？6.8？+？1.05 /？0.4（每〜300？年）或 m </ i> <sub> max < / sub>？=？7.05？+ + 0.95 / + 0.4分别假设截短或锥形的古腾堡 - RICHTER MFD。我们的结果意味着，例如，一个或多个 m </ i> <sub> </ sub> </ sub>？≥≤6.5主屏幕的（1）？一年，10％在10年内，100岁，100岁18-21％？多年。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Rollins Chris&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Rollins Chris;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Avouac Jean‐Philippe&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Avouac Jean‐Philippe;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Division of Geological and Planetary SciencesCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>Division of Geological and Planetary SciencesCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019852180.html">A Geodesy‐ and Seismicity‐Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Rollins Chris&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Rollins Chris,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Avouac Jean‐Philippe&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Avouac Jean‐Philippe </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-23539/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Geophysical Research Letters .</a> <span>2019</span><span>,第6期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：洛杉矶中部地区基于地震和地震性的地方地震可能性模型</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_soil-dynamics-earthquake-engineering_thesis/0204113643978.html">Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang J. P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wang J. P.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xu Yun&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Xu Yun,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wu Yih-Min&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wu Yih-Min </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-14587/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering .</a> <span>2017</span><span>,第Auga期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于局部观测有限的非局部模型的台北地震概率：最大似然估计</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_soil-dynamics-earthquake-engineering_thesis/0204113415554.html">Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang J. P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wang J. P.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xu Yun&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Xu Yun,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wu Yih-Min&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wu Yih-Min </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-14587/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering .</a> <span>2017</span><span>,第auga期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于局部观测有限的非局部模型的台北地震概率：最大似然估计</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-foreign_meeting-229582_thesis/020515688764.html">Fire following Earthquake Risk Assessment: The City of Los Angeles' Efforts toward Water System Seismic Resilience and Sustainability</a> <b>[C]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Craig Davis&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Craig Davis,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Charles Scawthorn&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Charles Scawthorn,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Richard Coles&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Richard Coles,</a> <a href="/conference-foreign-229582/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">International Conference on Sustainable Infrastructure .</a> <span>2019</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：地震风险评估后发生的火灾：洛杉矶市对水系统的抗震能力和可持续性的努力</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-foreign_mphd_thesis/02061881781.html">Likelihood of Organizations in the Los Angeles Area Implementing an Earthquake Early Warning System</a> <b>[D] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Riopelle, Deborah Denise.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Riopelle, Deborah Denise. </a> <span>2020</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：在洛杉矶地区实施地震预警系统的可能性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign-pmc_detail_thesis/040002399299.html">Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Junjie Ren&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Junjie Ren,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Shimin Zhang&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Shimin Zhang </a> <span>2013</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于地震矩累积/释放模型的龙门山断裂带中部大地震复发间隔估算</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/open-access_resources_thesis/01000127771781.html">Performance of a seismicity model based on three parameters for earthquakes (M ? 5.0) in Kanto, central Japan</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> </a> <span>2009</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于三个参数的地震（M？5.0）在日本市区的三个参数的性能</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>8. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/ntis-science-report_de_thesis/02071811291.html">CE-PA: A user`s manual for determination of controlling earthquakes and development of seismic hazard information data base for the central and eastern United States</a> <b>[R] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> </a> <span>1995</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：CE-pa：用户手册，用于确定控制地震和开发美国中部和东部的地震危险信息数据库</span> </p> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_recent-developments-world-seismology_thesis/0201253433331.html">地震活动泊松模型和应力释放模型在地震预测和地震危险性评估中的一些应用研究</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=刘杰&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 刘杰</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4935/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 国际地震动态 </a> </span> <span> . 2000</span><span>,第010期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-southwest-university-science-technology-philosophy-social-edition_thesis/0201226920486.html">论自然地震预测、预报的可能性——写在5.12汶川地震2周年之际</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=张志呈&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 张志呈</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-1433/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 西南科技大学学报（哲学社会科学版） </a> </span> <span> . 2010</span><span>,第002期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_recent-developments-world-seismology_thesis/0201253428515.html">印尼Mw9.0地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆——HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=赵玉林&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 赵玉林</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=张平&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,张平</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=钱复业&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,钱复业</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4935/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 国际地震动态 </a> </span> <span> . 2006</span><span>,第008期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_recent-developments-world-seismology_thesis/0201297573859.html">南加州地震中心获得120万美元资助研究地震预报的可能性</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=赵勇&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 赵勇</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4935/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 国际地震动态 </a> </span> <span> . 2006</span><span>,第3期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_recent-developments-world-seismology_thesis/0201253428736.html">实现地震预测的可能性和地震预测技术的探索方向</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=高祥林&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 高祥林</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4935/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 国际地震动态 </a> </span> <span> . 2005</span><span>,第002期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-9292_thesis/020222313277.html">利用地震触发的应力变化分析地震危险性的可能性探讨</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=陈棋福&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 陈棋福</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=王伟君&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,王伟君</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=王力伟&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,王力伟</a> <span> <a href="/conference-cn-9292/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 中国地震学会地震预报与历史地震专业委员会2011联合学术交流会 </a> <span> <span> . 2011</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/0203151096.html">地震活动性模型在地震危险性分析中的方法研究及其应用</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=杨勇&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 杨勇</a> <span> . 2008</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120113365132.html">基于层速度地震地质模型的地震反演方法及系统</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN113406695A </span> <span> . 2021-09-17</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061203560015.html">一种基于建筑物地震响应等效的爆破地震波模型构造方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN109270575B </span> <span> . 2019.11.26</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130458432450.html">STAND FOR MODELLING SEISMIC EFFECT OF EARTHQUAKE ON STRUCTURE MODEL</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  RU2024955C1 </span> <span> . 1994-12-15</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：地震对结构模型的影响模型 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130404073891.html">SURFACE DETECTION AND LOCATION OF MICROSEISMIC EVENTS AND EARTHQUAKES WITHOUT THE USE OF A VELOCITY MODEL</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US2019094397A1 </span> <span> . 2019-03-28</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：在不使用速度模型的情况下对微地震事件和地震的表面探测和定位 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130429323970.html">METHOD FOR MODELLING OF EARTHQUAKE SEISMIC ACTION</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  RU2359289C2 </span> <span> . 2009-06-20</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：地震作用建模方法 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704019852180','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div class="journal-sub"> <h2>期刊订阅</h2> <img src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/img/loginclose.png" alt="关闭" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()"> <p class="pardon">抱歉，该期刊暂不可订阅，敬请期待！</p> <p class="current">目前支持订阅全部北京大学中文核心（2020）期刊目录。</p> <div style="display: flex;margin-top: 69px;justify-content: space-between;"> <div class="no-sub" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()">暂不订阅</div> <div class="other-sub" onclick="continueSub('from=pc-detail')">继续订阅其他期刊</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right_btn"> <ul> <li class="gouwuche">  </li> <li class="yijian"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="link_analysis('/mycenter/auth/complaint.html',this)" title="意见反馈">意见反馈</a> </li> <li class="top"> <a href="javascript:scrollTo(0,0);" title="回到顶部">回到顶部</a> </li> <li class="shouye"> <a href="/" title="首页">回到首页</a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="xllindexfooter"> <div class="xllindexfootercenter"> <div class="xllindexfooterleft left" > <div class="xllindexfooterleftli"> <ul> <li><a href="/about.html" title="关于掌桥">关于掌桥</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpmap.html" title="资源导航">资源导航</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpguide.html" title="新手指南">新手指南</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpcenter.html" title="常见问题">常见问题</a></li> <li><a href="/sitemap.html" title="网站地图">网站地图</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpcenter.html?type=9" title="版权声明">版权声明</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="xllindexfooterleft"> <p class="xllindexfooterlefteamil">客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com</p> <div class="xllindexfooterlefttcp"> <div class="xllindexfooterpoliceiimg"></div> <div class="xllindexfooterpoliceispan"> <span>京公网安备：11010802029741号 </span> <span>ICP备案号：<a href="https://beian.miit.gov.cn" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="ICP备案号">京ICP备15016152号-6</a></span> <span>六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="xllindexfooterright left"> <ul> <li> <p style="font-weight: bold;">客服微信</p> <div></div> </li> <li> <p style="font-weight: bold;">服务号</p> <div></div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <span id="0704019852180down" data-source="7," data-out-id="JGKeoglpaiZTr5kEG3M21bfWb+ay/U7EFdM37z3aAjH8DX/Al7+w0zhmsATj9nwZ," data-f-source-id="7" data-title="A Geodesy‐ and Seismicity‐Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles" data-price="20" data-site-name="" data-transnum="24" style="display:none;"></span> <input type="hidden" value="4" id="sourcetype"> <input type="hidden" value="23539" id="journalid"> <input type="hidden" value="1" id="inyn_provide_service_level"> <input type="hidden" value="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com" id="imgcdn"> <input type="hidden" value="1" id="isdeatail"> <input type="hidden" value="" id="syyn_indexed_database"> <input type="hidden" value="" id="servicetype"> <input type="hidden" id="pagename" value="A Geodesy‐ and Seismicity‐Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles"/> <input type="hidden" value="thesis_get_original" id="pageIdentification"> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/jquery-1.12.4.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/lwlh_ajax.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zq.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/common.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/jquery.cookie.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/top.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/tip.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/login.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/down.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/search.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/newmail.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/searchtype.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/user/regist.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zxs_solor/detail.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/statistics/static/pagecollection.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/tj.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/sse.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/pushbaidu.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/history.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/util/cookie.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/weipu/weipu.js?v=5.7.8"></script> </body> <script> $(function(){ var weiPuStatus = getCookie('WeiPuStatus'); if(weiPuStatus){ tipWeiPuStatus(weiPuStatus); delCookie('WeiPuStatus'); } getFacetKeywordVoInId(); var sourcetype = $("#sourcetype").val(); var inyn_provide_service_level = $("#inyn_provide_service_level").val(); if((sourcetype ==1||sourcetype==4)&&inyn_provide_service_level!=4){ getJournal(); } }) </script> </html>