Understanding the Dynamic Contribution to Future Changes in Tropical Precipitation From Low‐Level Convergence Lines

Weller Evan; Jakob Christian; Reeder Michael J.

摘要

Abstract >Future precipitation changes include contributions from both thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Given that precipitation in the tropics is commonly associated with convergence lines, we construct a simple linear regression model relating the convergence line frequency and strength to precipitation at subdaily time scales, and use it to show that changes in the convergence lines are related to the dynamic change in the precipitation. Given GCM‐predicted convergence line changes, we predict precipitation changes using the regression model. The so‐predicted precipitation change is equivalent to the dynamic component of the precipitation change identified in earlier studies that used very different methods. The difference between the precipitation change in GCMs and that predicted from changes in convergence lines accounts for thermodynamic and other potentially important dynamic contributions. More accurate predictions of future precipitation therefore require the accurate simulations of the relatively short‐lived weather features responsible for convergence lines in the tropics in GCMs. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >未来的降水变化包括来自热力学和动态过程的贡献。鉴于热带地区的降水通常与收敛线相关联，我们构建一个简单的线性回归模型，将收敛线频率和强度与子日期时间尺度的降水相关，并使用它显示收敛线中的变化与动态相关降水的变化。考虑到GCM预测的收敛线改变，我们使用回归模型预测降水变化。所谓的降水变化相当于早期研究中鉴定的沉淀变化的动态分量，这些研究中使用了非常不同的方法。 GCMS降水变化与收敛线变化的差异占热力学和其他潜在重要的动态贡献。因此，对未来降水的更准确的预测需要准确模拟负责GCMS中热带地区的收敛线的相对短暂的天气特征。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共8页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Weller Evan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Weller Evan;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Jakob Christian&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Jakob Christian;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Reeder Michael J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Reeder Michael J.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>School of Earth Atmosphere and EnvironmentMonash UniversityClayton Victoria Australia;</p> <p>School of Earth Atmosphere and EnvironmentMonash UniversityClayton Victoria Australia;</p> <p>School of Earth Atmosphere and EnvironmentMonash UniversityClayton Victoria Australia;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=regional precipitation change&option=203" rel="nofollow">regional precipitation change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=atmospheric dynamics&option=203" rel="nofollow">atmospheric dynamics;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：区域降水变化;气候变化;大气动力学; 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